So I’m over my massive disappointment after yesterday’s poor showing.
Actually I’m very sanguine, probably because I saw what was coming and wasn’t at all convinced that we’d win the game.
It still annoys me that we did exactly what we shouldn’t have done, but oh well; it’s in the past.
Which leaves me asking the same question everybody has been asking, in do we keep Bruce or sack him?
I haven’t looked around any other Villa sites yet, but it seems the consensus on here is that he should stay.
I believe that’s sensible.
I know that a few of you won’t agree with that, but as much as I believe he cost us the game yesterday, so it’s undeniable that we’re in a much better position than when he first came to the club.
You might well say that “we bloody well ought to be, after the money we’ve spent”, but if we look at it from a wider angle, has Bruce actually spent much?
I’d have to re-trace exactly who he’s bought, to be honest, to answer that one.
The important part here, is that Bruce has called out the players with a bad attitude (think McCormack) or dropped those that needed dropping (Gabby), where it seemed previous managers couldn’t.
There’s one bloke in charge of the team now and that’s quite rightly the manager, himself.
He needs a chance just for that.
The Birmingham Mail has made a point about how Bruce has gone a long way to restoring the unity between the players and the fans.
I think that’s a very valid point. I’d never known such a bad player/fan relationship in all my years.
But that’s not enough in itself.
I still have major issues with how Bruce sets the side up.
He was way too defensive early on in his tenure, with the personnel he had available, but I’m of the opinion that he saw this was needed, if only to help create stability. I can’t argue with that, if that’s how he saw it.
Lately though, I think his defensive approach has cost us.
Certainly I thought so against Boro and thought so yesterday.
Which really makes we wonder if he has what it takes to push us on.
I’m not convinced.
Yet, even with all my doubts, I think Bruce deserves another crack next season.
We’re going to lose some very decent players, like Snodgrass and Hutton.
(Regardless of any speculation, we will NOT lose Grealish. Xia will not let it happen and I’m willing to take bets).
And we’re going to have to introduce some of the kids on a more regular basis.
Who knows these kids better than Bruce?
And while he might have been reluctant to play them this season, so I think with the constraints we’re under, he will give them more of a chance.
So we go with Bruce on another rolling one year contract.
And he gets until somewhere around November to prove that we can seriously challenge for the Championship title.
We will need to be top two though and that’s where I believe we might have a problem.
Look at the sides that have just been relegated from the Prem;
Swansea, Stoke and West Brom.
You may well think they’re all rubbish teams in the Prem
But they probably have way better squads than ours, when it comes to the championship.
And that’s where I struggle to see how we can go up next season, regardless of who the manager is.
But that’s for next season.
I don’t see there is any need to panic here. The £40M figure is inclusive of wages. Players on £40K is around £2.25M a year. Transfer fees on top and we will get there or thereabouts. Xia is entitled to inject some cash as well, and there are ways and means for him to support via sponsorship same as at Man City. Of course, that depends on whether Xia wants to do that. As I’ve said, Grealish is likely to go as part of that and he will be a significant chunk if a few teams compete for him.
Finally, the penalty for transgression is a fine. Again, Xia can handle that if he is as wealthy as supposedly.
The real issue is what state we end in from a team/players point of view. This is all why we needed to get promoted last season. If Bruce couldn’t do it with that squad I would like to see the reasoning behind any view that he will do it next season. Clue- he has no chance.
It’s almost impossible for us (or anyone else other than the club) to calculate what needs to be done under FFP rules. Don’t forget they are on a three year rolling loss basis so we are still reaping the ‘rewards’ of the losses in our last Prem season.
Another complication for example is how transfer fees are accounted for (the payment terms between clubs are not relevant – that’s cash flow not P&L). A players fee can be depreciated by 100% over the length of their contract. So, for instance McCormack cost c£12m and, I think he was given a five year contract so, he is a cost of around £2.5m per year plus wages (if a 4 year contract £3m per year plus wages). Let’s assume 4 years so to date we have depreciated his cost by £6m – now here’s the rub – if we sell him then we account for the whole fee received in the current year’s accounts but any losses also accrue. So to improve the financial position on McCormack the difference between the amount we receive can’t be less than £6m – £3m plus wages. So if he’s on £2m per year £40k per week then a transfer fee of £1m would be break even in the current year’s accounts. If he’s on a five year contract we would need a higher transfer fee to break even.
Long contracts are great accounting wise as long as the player performs and maintains his transfer value – otherwise they are a millstone.
Anyone still with me?
Yes I get it . Player sales are included in the FFP calc. I don’t think depreciation has any effect. I believe it’s just how much you spend (or receive) in a season on net transfer fees. That does mean that they are taken at full value when they happen. I think if we do the necessary trading this summer we will be OK from a FFP perspective.
From a playing perspective I am way more concerned.
DS – Depreciation is a factor according to the long, complex and boring article I read on how FFP works – that’s why we are seeing longer player contracts than previously.
Actually, think you are right.
Oh, yes, it’s massively important.
Only it’s called amortisation, not depreciation (although depreciation is probably a better word).
And while there are set guidelines, they imo, are not set in stone.
Hence they can be varied to suit the books, as long as things add up in the longer term and can be explained.
Even if I’m wrong there, you can always make the books look exactly how you want, as long as it’s in the short term.
Don’t forget, if on the face of it, we haven’t got a pot to piss in, we are not going to be bent over when we want to buy/loan a player 😉
Games within games, but yes, I’d accept we don’t have much to play with.
we are all just guessestimating and your right about the payments on every transfers. but its interesting listening to words from bruce saying he will have to lose some. he doesn’t mean terry or the loans aswell
the reports which are floating around, they are saying they seen the books and its severe. the overall running of the club wages etc needs to be reduced. it says in our 1st year of championship we were losing 800k a week and that was with a 40 million parachute payment.
we are just going have to wait it out, hopefully they can sell off the lesser quality players first. two seem to have been sold, if they can sell off the returning loans. maybe we might only have to sell adomah
lastly its the three strikers we bought to score the goals to win promotion they must be on a fair packet between them. mccormak / kodjia / hogan. who is going to hazard a guess at their wages for a year ?? i would be interested in that figure, because that must be about the deficit we need to find. because i doubt we can sell them.
Bruce is not the man to play youth nor attacking football.
The high earning experienced players gamble has failed.
Lets move on.
Dean Smith or similar please
On my previous piece when I said ‘break even’ I meant to ensure that the cost of McCormack on the books in the next financial year is no greater than if we kept him. We would need a fee in excess of £6m to make a ‘profit’ and to free up the cost of his wages.
the team that finished 4th last year was mostly down to grealish, i will be called fruit cake not a tart for saying that. but its bloody true. you take grealish out off villa and we are box standard. we would have finished midtable at best last season,
he is so damn good. he was the heart beat of the team. every game the ball went through him. he was pulling the opposition ragged, he makes others look good. you just need to run in good positions and he will find you on the move,
thats why i thought hogan would be a hit with him. but they hardly played together. hogan does make them deft little dashes behind players. his movement is really good. they seemed a good pairing. I WOULD have thought
Hence losing Grealish for the first half of the season was a massive blow. If Fulham had lost Cairney (sic) or Sessgnon (sic) for half a season ………
Apologies but I can’t spell LOL
Kodjia’s injury didn’t help either…
the delay on your post appearing, is like seeing the answer before your question appears.its doing my head right in. who knows we all might wake up tomorrow and richards has been sold lol maybe not
Unfortunately we have to wait this one out – But without Grealish and Snodgrass I think we are a mediocre mid table side, I think if we have to sell Jack we are really in the brown stuff.
Agree on Grealish but we do, hopefully, have Andre Green to come back into the side although that would require Adomah swoping wings
Your right Saddened but it could force him to start using coming of age players, I think he’s been playing safe now for months and steps back from using them, I’ve been reading what your on about Hitch, and think I’ve got what your saying, this FFP that been hitting us should get better as months go bye?, we would have reduced wage, and sold by January’s window.to use what we have for the run in, is that right.?
It should Bill but it’s going to be a long haul – maybe up to three years to completely steady the ship financially (that’s a complete guess) and selling Grealish is going to be difficult to resist if a massive offer comes in (I hear what you say Badger but Leicester with the Mahraz money?).
The really galling thing to me is whilst we can’t afford to keep McCormack we probably can’t afford to sell him unless we can get an offer north of £3m or so. I can see one of Hogan / Kodjia going but again we will need to receive hefty offers to improve the books. We might even see some ‘surprising’ departures – Adomah, Chester etc. – pretty depressing from Xia’s words although the positive would be he seems to be in for the long haul and on the race of it is a consummate businessman.
Those who have been crying out to see the youngsters play will get their wish next season and, frankly, I don’t see us being strong enough to challenge for promotion again in the short to medium term.
Hope I’m wrong.
*face of it
https://www.avfc.co.uk/News/2018/05/30/club-statement-dr-tony-xia-on-future-plans
Well it’s official JT has left and I wish him well. I suppose it was always going to happen given his wages. Also the chairman has made a statement which doesn’t really offer anything new. No mention of Bruce and his coaching staff continuing next season, just a big thank you to them for creating unity at the club.
I’d beg to differ. I think Xia is having a proper think about this situation and we’ll find out soon enough. It’s really very ambiguous and open to all sorts of interpretation: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/44308522
Never thought I’d say it, but thanks John Terry, you did us proud, led by example, reminded our dressing room how to give a shit and fight for the club. Ta!
Here it is Holte66
Aston Villa captain John Terry has left the club after they failed to gain promotion to the Premier League.
Terry, 37, joined the Villans on a one-year deal last summer after leaving Chelsea and scored once in 36 appearances for the club.
However, he could not help them return to the top flight after a two-year absence, as they lost 1-0 to Fulham in Saturday’s Championship play-off final.
Villa thanked defender Terry for “the effort and professionalism he showed”.
The club said in a statement: “John is a true leader and was everything and more that we hoped. Hugely popular and influential in the dressing room, he played a real captain’s role in creating the incredible bond the players shared with our supporters, and vice-versa.
“We hope he looks back on his time with Villa fondly and we wish him the very best as his career moves forward.”
Villa boss Steve Bruce said before the play-off final that he was hopeful that the former England captain, who made 492 league appearances across 19 years for Chelsea, would remain with the club if they secured a return to the Premier League.
Terry’s next move is not clear, although there are no initial indications that he plans to retire from playing.
Before joining Villa last year, he reportedly received an “eye-watering offer” from Turkish club Galatasaray, while there was “definite interest” from China and the United States.
He has also previously stated a desire to move into management, saying it would be “incredible” to manage his former side Chelsea once his playing career ends.
Villa ‘need to change a lot of things’
who knows the wages of the three attackers. kodjia mccormack and hogan what is a good guess of how much these three earn altogether in one year. i have no idea but i would love to know.
terry has been a good signing, he has united the dressing room. but for all his good attributes. it was his lack of pace which hindered villla at times. we were frightened to press high. that allowed teams lots of room in to play their stuff. many were not good enough to capitalise but some were and we paid a heavy price.
still good luck to him i bet he will get a even bigger paid day in the sun he deserves it. good luck JT
Reading Xia’s comments it seems like a goodbye to Bruce. Maybe it’s a translation thing.
Sounded bloody depressing too – big changes ahead and I don’t think positive ones !!
Kodjia, McCormack and Hogan wages?
I’ll go £35k, £50k and £30k, top line.
Now consider that includes appearance money, goals scored money, result money, so it’s probably quite a bit less.
£90k a week?
Or £4.5 mill a year?
I assume our allowable losses over 3 years will be higher than £39m as one of those three we were still a premiership club but then FFP is so illogical in my book – who knows? We get a £35m parachute next season and that’s it.
Turning losses into profit to reduce the allowable rolling debt is going to be one hell of a challenge for Xia / Wryness. I think we can expect to see changes to coaching staff as well as playing staff plus more cutting back across the club.
Steel yourselves lads – this us going to be painful
And just to add a final chapter to this developing horror story – if we don’t get promoted next season then in the following year £35m gets wiped off our income in a single stroke. Look at our turnover and go figure that little bombshell out.
In reality it means we have to start making a profit and now; we cannot afford to gamble next season – hence I’m afraid Grealish will probably get sold – what other option do we have?
We are Doomed doomed Mr Manering, Christ on a bike, we will probably end up getting shafted according to that, we best use our own players from the under 23 and 21s to save our club.Trouble is agent’s don’t give a shit if we go tits up ,but home grown players show loyalty to its maker. Im now despondent to how we end up. Jesus wept.
Can see Grealish going to Leicester – they are about to get 75m for Mahrez so could easily pay 30-40m for Jack and lets face it, as gut wrenching as it is to admit for his career he should go as the size of the rebuilding job given FFP will be years.
We can use the money to offset FFP and try and build a side in 2-3 years to compete again using youth and a modern setup of effective scouting from Europe and the lower leagues, similar to how Brentford operate. All this requires a new management setup and perhaps more involvement from Steve Round in recruiting. This may well be the change in strategy Dr Tony is hinting at, either way we’re now in the process of long term rebuilding. Promotion next season IMO is off the cards, its about stabilising financially and building for around 2020-2021 to go again. By then however, the league will be saturated with more teams with PL parachute money who won’t be anywhere near as naive as us.
Its basically a nightmare situation and I think we’ll look back at 26th May 2018 as a day that defined our next decade.
So with all this doom and gloom and the 26th being a defining day when will people finally admit that SB was mostly to blame….all the time he has been here he has done well to sort out the mess from the Prem years but time and again has fell short when it mattered.
O.K. we lost to QPR after the Wolves result but surely the Bolton one should have been a win…..it never happened.
He and his staff had a week and a half to sort out the tactics for the final and duly coked it up….everyone knew how Fulham would play so it’s hot to be their collective blame…..if we are now starting again on a 2-3 year plan get rid and get Smith in please.
TEST…
how the hell do we post on here nowadays. ….
We took a gamble with a big spend on experience. It very nearly worked so for that I am not angry.
In the end the Fulham scorer was unmarked by any left back as he had time to pick his spot and score. No Villa forward ever had as much time in the whole game. Who was the left back? I am not sure if it was supposed to be Elmo or Hutton, but as the move began it is Hutton nearest to the scorer who fails to track back. If that was the richest game in football – then that moment was the most expensive error in football.
More of the same is no longer an option, the camera caught Dr T after the goal and the expression on his face said everything. I would be very surprised if Bruce, whose gamble it was, is still the manager come August. Do we sell Grealish or everybody else? Actually I expect the latter. All the older players were part of plan B – to go with experience. We could not afford that again if we wanted to. So they are all now surplus to requirements. Grealish could be the centre of a young team working for a new manager. A chance to prove Hansen wrong again.
Absolutely no argument from me OLL and would love your scenario to become fact. We could on that basis hold onto Grealish for another season and probably manage FFP but it means if we fail to get promotion we are facing a big black hole (Bruce or no Bruce) – will Dr T back another gamble?
Reading between the lines of his recent comments I suspect not and therefore I believe we will sell our most valuable asset to help great a sound financial base for the future. At the same time this would help us write off the losses of McCormack and Richards by getting rid at the same time thus putting us on a sound financial footing.
Yes but we can’t shift the older players. The likes of Jedinak, Whelan, Neil Taylor and so on aren’t going to get anywhere near what we’re paying them. Ironically Bjarnasson might raise some funds if he has a good world cup. but we need him to stay instead of tired old Glenn Whelan. Again awful management from Bruce.
We need to offset around 35-40m – without selling Grealish I just cant see it being feasible. I guess the board will take the view that they sell now while he’s got 2 years left for big money.
Much like the Swiss Ramble coverage of the clubs FFP issues this past weekend there was also a pretty good rough breakdown on 7500toHolte website. Might be a good read for anyone looking to understand what the hell this might mean or what it’s all about.
In summary, the club has already cut a large sum of the reported 40-45m FFP debt and there may be ways for the club to hold on to Grealish, but selling is by far the easiest.