First, welcome Olliw Watkins.
I like this signing, because it’s obviously a player Dean Smith wants.
I know that the Villa system now is that we have more of a recruitment team, but I find it reassuring that the coach has obviously had a big input in this window.
However, I’m not at all impressed with the cost and feel that frankly, we might have paid £10 million too much for him.
I know what some of you will say and I get it.
It’s what you have to pay in this market.
But what a risk this is going to be.
I can’t actually say I’ve seen that much of the player, but everyone talks about how good a player he is; dynamic, quick when it comes to chances, pacy, etc,etc.
It all sounds great and he’s a shoe-in to be in the running for the Golden boot.
Except we all know it doesn’t work like that.
We have had more than our fair share of strikers who score for fun in the Championship, only to prove to be utter rubbish in the Premier league.
I’m not saying this is going to be the case with Watkins.
Indeed, the law of averages says it’s probably about time we got one right.
But it’s a decent possibility and one that would prove costly not only in money, but in Smith’s job too.
Anyway, of couse I hope he comes good and wish him very good luck.
And then I got to thinking, what would it take for Watkins to be deemed as having had a decent season?
Is it purely goals scored?
Well, that’s obviously the big priority. I’ve often said that I don’t care if a striker sits on the sidelines for 85 minutes a game smoking a fag, as long as he gets 20 goals a season. That’s his job and it doesn’t matter to me how he achieves it.
But while Watkins gets goals, that’s not all that his game is about.
A quick look at Whoscored says he’s got pretty much the lot in his locker, except for crossing and offside awareness. The latter can be trained out of him, so we can expect assists with his good passing, that can prove to be key.
How many would be deemed adequate depends on how many goals he gets, meaning more goals means less assists is acceptable and vice versa, so it’s not an easy question to answer.
Personally, I think if he can get a combination of twenty goals and assists, that would be an excellent first season.
Certainly, I’d be expecting 10 goals as a minimum requirement, if he remains mostly injury free. Throw in 5 assists and that would be acceptable I reckon.
Am I asking for too much?
Very possibly, but we need to remember the lad has not only broken our club record transfer fee, but smashed it out of the park.
So while the pressure on the lad is going to be nothing like he’s experienced before, that’s what he’s taken on.
I’m interested to know what you think.
PS, my source, who doesn’t come out with a massive amounts of tips, but has proven 100% reliable up to now, tells me we are indeed after another striker and a goalie.
That’s not news, I know, but it is confirmation of what the click-baiters are saying.
UTV!
So to recap, we’ll have Watkins, Wesley, AN Other, Samatta and Davis,
Surely at least one and maybe two will have to go?
Badger you forgot Hogan 🙂
Assuming Watkins is now our first choice striker and Wesley will be staying – not least because of his injury – then it’s either Samatta or Davis to go along with Hogan of course
Well maybe that’s a blindingly obvious statement.
Neither of those two would sit on the bench as straight replacements so which of them would be a better partner for Watkins if we play two up top? For me that would be Davis and I think he would be a better option to play alongside Wesley.
From what I saw last season, and for all his willing running, I think Samatta will struggle in the EPL.
But then we could sell them both!
That’s similar to my thoughts.
I’d keep Davis, because he offers a decent option with his hold up play and the thought of him laying it off for Watkins appeals.
So Hogan will surely go to Blues and at least one of Wesley or Samatta has to go.
Given that I think Wesley is utter crap, I’m in the minority so we might lose Samatta.
Whatever, we’re way overloaded.
Badger, if we after another striker, hope it’s a wide player where we could do with some additional quality.
20 goals for a first season in the EPL is a lot.
I don’t think we’ve had the goals spread over the rest of the team enough over recent years and as such has put more adverse pressure on the forward team. Players like Jack can handle that but he’s a special breed.
For Ollie to succeed, he needs to be able to play his game without the pressure of feeling like this is all on his shoulders alone. If Trez or whoever else we get in up front and on the wings is able to chip in with more goals than our front-line last season, I think 15 goals would be a VERY sound return, especially when you consider that Tammy got that same figure last season from 36 games in a way more creative side than ours.
Personally, I think a more realistic successful first season would be double digits of any kind. Would I love him to score more, and do I hope he does? Yes – but if you look at who’s actually scored over 20 goals in the EPL the last 3 years, and they’re all world class international players. I think we need to temper expectations of Ollie and forget the price tag.
For clarity, I haven’t suggested 20 goals Tex.
I said a combo of 20 goals and assists would be excellent.
But more realistically a combo of 15 would be acceptable.
20 goals? That would be nice, but even on an exceptionally good day, I wouldn’t expect that many and I hope noone else does either.
Wesley scored 6 goals in 22 appearances, so if he hadn’t been injured a target of 10+ wouldn’t have been unreasonable.
I don’t think Wesley was as bad as some fans (Badger 🙂 ) think. At 22 years of age, moving to a new country in a completely rebuilt team in the EPL?
If we’re happy with Watkins at £28m plus add-ons getting a total of 15 goals / assists in a settled side with EPL experience having come from a top Championship side etc. then I think Wesley is doing OK
* was doing OK
I have to agree with you Hitch. It seemed obvious to me that Wes is a good player when he was feeling up for it. Getting him up for it seemed to be the challenge and perhaps that was his expectations of the game, as well as confidence too? Either way, I’m worried when he returns – so often these long-term injuries seem to affect the confidence of a player even when their bodies recover. It could be 1-2 years before we see any return to form – but on the whole I think he was doing alright too.
Agree with H60 & Texas Villan here – Wesley was always going to need time to settle into a new club, league & country.
Judge him after 35-40 full games.
i concur too wesley wasn’t three bad lol. i felt sorry for him he was so isolated up front alone, i thought lock down started months before it really did with no villa anywhere near 2 metres.
fans say he has a bad touch, i am not sure about that too. he looked uncomfortable with the speed of the games and the challenges he received. but i think he will adapt and become a good striker. he started to link up with grealish just before he got injured. i think he will make a perfect one of the new trios up front and that might allow grealish to play deeper and central.
I’d be happy if any of our strikers can get into double figures this season (not including cup games)
This Martinez deal might just happen! I’ll be over the moon if it happens
Looking good Tom, all in agreement hopefully signed sealed and delivered tomorrow.
Wesley has been out for so long that it could be the 21/22 season before he is back to where he was. He showed glimpses of ability and playing in a foreign country for a struggling team was always a big ask. Watkins played out wide for Brentford before Maupay left so there is a possibility that Wesley and Watkins could both play up front. I think it’s inevitable that one or two strikers will be gone excluding Hogan. I would offload Samatta and loan out Davis. McCormack’s (remember him) contract came to an end in the summer so that was a big wage off the books. I’m guessing Hogans wage is ridiculously high too so he simply has to go. El Ghazi or Trezeguet will probably be leaving too if we bring in another attacker. I’m not sure what the situation is with Jota but surely he is surplus to requirements.
I think there will be more outgoings than incomings from now on and I’m just hoping that Grealish isn’t one of them.
Keeping Jack has two facets. Improve his contract and demonstrate an intent to improve the squad.
I believe our owners will do both
Being reported that Martinez has agreed personal terms with Villa and it’s just a matter of Villa agreeing the deal with Arsenal.
Sounds like this deal is going to happen – keeping everything crossed.
Cash, Watkins and Martinez – that would be a significant improvement on our squad and would seriously piss off the Arse fans – bring it on!
Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
UTV
reports coming in that Villa have made an offer for Rashica. That would be tasty
Rashica was my guess for the striker and it makes sense as he plays on the left, I think?
I knew I was in the minority re Wesleym but didn’t realise it was overwhelmingly so 🙂
It’s all about opinions, but here’s why I’m not keen on him;
I remember mentioning a few times that I thought his positioning was very poor.
His touch is indeed poor.
And he just doesn’t look instinctive to me. I reckon Trezeguet looks more instinctive and positions himself better.
And for someone of his build, he seems a bit of a wimp,although I do agree that he seems better when he’s up for it.
But then, if you have to get “up for it”, you haven’t got what it takes at this level, imo,
I suspect it could be pretty academic this season anyway and it’ll probably be a write-off for him.
As for a comparison to Watkins, yes, fair enough, good point, but I’m not happy with Watkins’ price so it’s not that valid an argument really.
It’s just my opinion and hopefully I’m talking out of my pie hole. I don’t like the idea of getting nothing out of Wesley for our £20 odd million.
As an aside, it’s interesting that most of the commentors in a Brum Mail article have West Brom, Fulham and us as favourites to go down, whereas none of them think Leeds will.
Fwiw, I don’t see why Leeds will prove to be better than us at all.
Badger, Leeds seem to be the new ‘favourites’ of the pundit / sports hack (I think writer is an inaccurate description).
Phil McNulty of the BBC wrote a gushing piece about them and predicts they will finish 11th (Villa 15th as long as we don’t sell Grealish). The mirror sportswriters all ‘love’ Leeds but, along with West Brom and Fulham, we are their favourites to go down.
I think many were pissed off because we relegated Bournemouth and pundits favourite Eddie Howe!
So no pressure then – we’ve been written off (or should that be ‘hacked off’) already. 🙂
Agree 100% – the media are already creaming themselves about everything to do with Leeds and their manager.
I agree about Wesleys weakness and lack of instinct. He has ability but I’m not sure we have been able to harness it. Certainly, he doesn’t look like he can play up top on his own. It may be that with some more quality in the team we can get the best out of him. Watkins is quick, athletic and looks much better and hungrier for goals.
It’s going to be a tougher league than last year I think
Although I think you’re all writing-off Wesley a bit soon, the one point I do agree with is Badger’s comment regarding Wesley as a bit of a ‘wimp’.
In the games I watched, he seemed genuinely shocked that anyone would tackle or barge him (is the Belgian league ‘non-contact’?) and for a big-looking guy went over too easily (cue theatrical serious rolling-around).
Maybe a dose of reality in his few games so far will have sunk-in a little…
If anyone’s interested, you can watch the friendly on Villa TV tomorow from 10pm. It’s only a fiver (!).
I’d love to have watched it and would probably have stumped up if it was live, but I think I’ll give it a miss.
I won’t say what I’m thinking.
£5 to watch a friendly and it’s not even live! I bet it’s live on MUTV. Can’t say I’m interested in watching it anyway. It will be minimal contact tackling and too many substitutions to have any indication on what will happen during the season.
Changing topic, what are the chances of the Ramsey brothers making the grade. I think it was Jacob who scored two against Arsenal. Will he suffer the curse of O’Hare and be loaned out rather than risked, only to be forgotten and contract expires? Could be the Moore brothers revisited but without first team appearances.
Ramsey brothers are better prospect than ohare at the same age. what was ohares downfall was his size at the time, plus his exposure to first team games. he might still make the grade, but he will have to work hard and i hope he does.
Ramsey brothers are better prospect,but still they need to go out on loan. the oldest one did well on loan, before the lockdown i think it was doncaster. but to progress they need to get 1st team earlier than we have allowed in the past.
i think we made changes to the youth and they were needed. we had good players in the recent past and i think we might have failed them. but under smith i think they will get in if they can prove they can be trusted and if they are good enough.
i think loads of youth players are good enough with the skills. where most come a cropper is the physical side. thats why they need to get more exposure to the 1st team quicker and doesn’t matter the level, matters that they get used to the ugly side to prepare them for a career in our first team
i hope we get that Rashica i like the look of him. when we were linked to him earlier in window. i did some research on him. if we can trust youtube he is a grealish type player. very good close dribbling control, which is a nightmare for defenders. he will surely be a fans favourite running at the defenders and causing havoc. i suspect we wont get him as i think we might have been linked with him to replace grealish. but him and grealish would be a dream double trouble 🙂
All the stories earlier in the window suggested that he wasn’t keen on joining Villa – he fancied himself too good for anything other than a Champions League team.
That worries me a bit, because it suggests he’d only come here for some exorbitant wages and be off again as soon as one of London or Mancs clubs came calling.
It seems Brighton have tried to hi jack our move for Martinez and have, allegedly, put in a higher bid. If we can’t see off Brighton then there are some serious questions to answer!
OLLIE scores v Man U…
Is that a prediction or has it happened. Can’t find anything re the match.