It’s crunch time, Tim Sherwood’s first two games weren’t a success but Villa was up against two solid mid-table sides. Villa should’ve gotten a point against Stoke and Newcastle, but it just wasn’t meant to be. With 3 teams on 22 points it looks likely that either Villa, QPR or Burnley will go down. I strongly believe that Leicester City are already out of it. So having said that, let’s look at our remaining fixtures and make ‘realistic’ predictions and try to remain as objective as possible.
March:
Aston Villa Vs West Brom – Win
Aston Villa Vs West Brom (FA Cup) – Draw
Sunderland Vs Aston Villa – Draw
Aston Villa Vs Swansea – Draw
Total: 5 points.
March was difficult to predict. I predict that Aston Villa will beat West Brom in one of the two fixtures this week. Ideally, I’d like to see 3 points against West Brom more. But if we lose, or draw to West Brom in the League. I expect a response in the FA Cup. Plus, Villa have been playing much better in the Cup rather than the League. The Sunderland game is a tricky one. A draw would be a good result in my opinion, but a win is only possible if Villa have momentum and if Sunderland are on poor form. A draw against Swansea would be a great result, they’re having a great season so far.
April:
Manchester United Vs Aston Villa – Lose
Tottenham Vs Aston Villa – Lose
Aston Villa Vs QPR – Win
Man City Vs Aston Villa – Lose
Total: 3 points
A very difficult month for Villa. I don’t expect Villa to win any of the fixtures against the top sides, but a draw wouldn’t be out of the question. The likelihood of a draw looks possible against Spurs, but I’m only saying that based on Sherwood being our manager. I’m sure he’ll be looking for some kind of redemption. But honestly, I don’t care if we lose three games that month. As long as we beat QPR I’d be happy, that is a massive 6 pointer game and one of those games that would determine relegation for either side.
May:
Aston Villa Vs Everton – Draw
Aston Villa Vs West Ham – Draw
Southampton Vs Aston Villa – Lose
Aston Villa Vs Burnley – Win
Total: 5 points
Very similar to March, Villa could sneak a win against either Everton or West Ham. But as it stands, two draws are most viable. West Ham are having a solid season and have gotten the better of our team in the last few years. Everton aren’t on great form this year so a win could be possible. But again, we have tended to struggle against Everton. Could Villa snatch another surprise victory against Southampton? Well if Southampton are still chasing and in contention of a Champions League spot, I’d say no. But if they’re mathematically out of it, then we could see an uninspired performance by Southampton. The final game of the season against Burnley will see the winner stay up. As we are at home, I think Villa will nick it.
So my ‘realistic’ predictions saw Villa gain a total of 13 points during that period of time, equaling a total of 35 points. Of course, Villa might do better than my predictions or worse, but I reckon fans can expect 12-15 collected points throughout the course of these next 3 months. 35 points does look bleak, but Burnley’s fixtures are freakishly difficult. I’d be surprised if they got more than 10 points by the end of it! QPR have a mediocre fixture list. I calculated a total of 12 points, which is still less than Villa’s. It’s safe to say that QPR are our main rivals for the season. Another team might get dragged into the relegation battle as the weeks go by (Sunderland?) but one of the three teams QPR, Burnley or Villa will still be playing Premier League football next season.
You haven’t mentioned hull??
I reckon Hull will be fine, they’re picking up points and have a winnable fixture tomorrow.
If we win aswell as Burnley & QPR then we’ll be dragging more teams into the scrap,Inc Everton if results go our way it’s far from a 3 horse race there’s more twists & turns to come that’s for sure. WE WILL NOT BE R’D UTV
You’ve looked into this closely Adam, nice one.
Tbh, I looked at the fixture list yesterday and couldn’t see where we would get a single point, the way things are going.
April just scared me.
Having said that, I don’t think you’re that far away from what will happen.
Let’s hope it’s enough to survive.
Yeah, a good analysis. I didn’t think we’d collect a solitary point in February, and we didn’t. Sometimes you don’t wanna be right!!!
Can’t believe it’s come to this. We’re seriously facing the drop. I always though we’d be okay the past few years although it’s been too close for comfort. I do think Leicester have been cut adrift, so two places going begging. It could be any two of five or six. Christ it’s going to be close. I still maintain we’re better off with Tim than ‘his predecessor’, but the axe may fallen too late.
That’s very much in line with my thinking BB, although I don’t believe Leicester are cut off just yet.
Same as us, a couple of wins turns everything on it’s head.
That’s the wonderful world of footy! 🙂
And yep, we’re better off with anyone rather than “the predecessor”, as we were 100% doomed with him in charge, imo.
Can’t keep blaming Lambert.Youll see what these group of players are made of.My theory is the players arnt good enough.Lambert bought them yes but why?Because Lerner wasn’t providing for proper players.Lerners that stupid he’s going to lose millions but that’s Karma isn’t it.We will be relegated life has its way of teaching people valuable lessons Lerner will learn the hard way.utv
That’s a Yes and No for me, JD.
While you’re right, in that Lerner didn’t provide the funds, Lambert assembled the squad.
My major criticism about Lambert was that he wouldn’t change things, as in dropping players when it was needed.
In fairness, it’s an accusation I’ll be throwing at TS too, if we continue to lose and he doesn’t change it up.
I’ve hinted at it before, more than once, but I really do wonder how much influence our “Mr Aston Villa” player has at the club.
Whatever, if Lambert felt things were so bad that he offered to resign (twice, apparently) he should have done just that, instead of talking about it after his sacking.
The shocking part about that is, he was probably offered the new contract after he first offered to resign!
Which is an awful way to run anything, let alone a Prem club.
Hence both Lerner and Lambert are culpable, imo and good riddance to both once Lerner’s gone (which will happen sooner rather than later, imo).
An accumilation of catastrophic influencees then
The mistake hiring Sherwood is that he fell into a ready made Spurs team of good players.Where as with us it’s a different kettle altogether.Hes not got any experience in a relegation scrap either.You could tell after the Stoke loss he knew he couldn’t do any more than he had done even though it was only one game and a few days training.I want to stay positive and think we can pull off The Great Escape but the players don’t seem to have that quality and cutting edge.I can’t shake off that I beleive we are down already utv
10 points max from the remaining games
Think that is a realistic assessment Adam. Southampton are really dropping off at the moment (1 goal in last 5 Premiership games). They are looking like Villa Mk2, plenty of possession with no real threat.
We need a win fast. West Brom? Maybe but that will be tough.
Southampton might start dropping like Villa did in 2009 was it?
So Villa could pick up something against them, we’ve done it before and Southampton were some what lucky to pick up a point against us.
JD, maybe hiring Sherwood will prove to be a mistake, but who else was there?
Pulis was the one or maybe even Fat Sam, ( who I still wouldn’t bet against come the summer, as he’ll be cheap, as in no buyout clause), but the hierarchy just left it too late.
In the hierarchy, I mean Fox too, who’s done absolutely nothing to inspire me into thinking that he can change anything, even though Sherwood was probably his decision.
Sherwood is a total gamble, shit or bust and is exactly what we should have done at the time, imo.
The bigger question, if we go down, is who left it until after the window to make the change, where any appointment would be hamstrung and it was already obvious we were in serious trouble?
The only person really who could of made any difference to AVFC was Lerner & it seems he didn’t want to spend,get involved or make proper footballing decisions,get someone in who could make those types of decisions properly or have someone who could properly execute the job as big as managing Aston Villa.Any manager or football club without proper funding will flounder and eventually collapse inwards slowly taking and never putting back in breaks something down to its bare foundations.This is what’s happened at AVFC but the twist is Lerner couldn’t complete the final part of his plan which was to sell after he’d taken back what he thought he was owed.Now he has the unthinkable to think about his broken toy only repairable by big spending which he doesn’t want to take responsibility for and fix.He is now a dishevelled stay away coward who doesn’t want to pay the piper.More fool you Lerner what goes around definately comes around Championship beckons losing you millions maybe this fright will sort you yellow brain out or maybe it won’t and we drop a league or two serves you right.utv
Or maybe, his head was a shed after his divorce?
And as stupid as it might sound, maybe he didn’t/doesn’t care about the money or the Villa?
Stranger things have happened and taking his kids back home did seem to be a pivotal point, one I couldn’t blame him about.
Not that I’m trying to defend him.
More I’m trying to think of who’s advising him.
Maybe it was divource do funny things to people i just think he didn’t want to spend anymore this has been going on since 2010 when Oneill left.That said its still his fault and he looks like it will cost him
I think tomorrow’s game could be the pivotal game of the season. A win against the Baggies and all will seem possible; a draw and we’ll still be in limbo; if we lose then I think we’re as good as gone.
I’m not basing this of the maths of the situation but on where the players heads will be. If we lose tomorrow it’s overwhelmingly likely we’ll lose in the cup on Sunday too and there goes any chance of redeeming the season for the players.
We need a bit of magic from TS and we need it now.
UTV
I really do like Tim Sherwoods approach and I really hope he does the business tomorrow just hope it’s not to late for him to turn things around.If he does work a miracle and keeps us in the premier league Lerner needs to back his man properly in the summer.God bless Aston Villa.
I see vlaar’s got his dodgy calf problem yet again getting a bit boring now can’t he injure another part of his anatomy for a change no great loss imo.UTV SOTB