It seems such a short while ago that we managed to scrape a win at Old Trafford, doesn’t it?
Confidence was palpable throughout the players, the fans and the whole club. Confidence was brimming.
Yet here we are just six weeks later and it’s doom gloom and despondency. It’s one of the biggest turnarounds in fortunes that I can remember at the Villa for years.
You have to ask what’s caused it and for me there’s only one reason; Dean Smith messing with the system purely to accomodate players.
I’m tempted to say he should be sacked just for that alone. But I’m not that vindictive and we have to try and get behind him and the team and encourage them to get the win.
Not that I think we’ve got a hope in hell.
I’ve seen many fans say that we have to get three points against Southampton or Smith is in serious trouble.
It’s almost as if we should be beating them comfortably, yet I don’t see it like that at all. You’d think Southampton are in Norwich’s position, but the reality is they’re one place above us. When you take into account the fact they have home advantage, they have to be favourites.
A quick glance at the first bookie I came across shows Southampton at 19/20 and Villa at 27/10. So, yes, the home team are clear favourites.
And it’s not hard to see why is it?
We offer no attacking strategy and our defence is worse than useless at the moment. You probably already have a good idea what sort of score I’m going to predict.
Squad news and it’s just a joke on our part.
It’s been oft said lately that we’ve been incredibly unlucky with everything seeming to collude against us. Yet if I was Dean Smith, I’d be wanting an inquiry into why we seem to get so many injuries, for such stupid reasons and usually in training.
If indeed they are injuries and the club are not just covering up other things. We know Smith has a tendency to not tell the complete truth, after all. But that’s another issue.
Danny Ings and Douglas Luiz are both out with muscle injuries, neither of which were sustained on the pitch. Good job, whoever’s in charge of conditioning the players, I don’t think.
There is some good news to counter that, in that Sicknote Sanson, Jaden Philogene-Bidace and Jacob Ramsey have all been declared fit.
The news about Ramsey is a pleasant surprise after the manager informed us that he’d been told the lad had a high ankle injury, leading to many reports that he’d be out for at least six and possibly ten weeks, such is the severity of that sort of problem.
Yet he’s fit again in less than a week. They might as well pay me to do the diagnosis. The medical world has just announced an anti Covid tablet and a jab that will pretty much eradicate cervical and HPV related head and neck cancer, yet we can’t even make such a straightforward diagnosis.
Okay, I understand that you probably have to do further investigation to confirm, but why say anything at all if you’re not sure?
It’s yet another symptom of how everything currently seems to be wrong at the Villa, in my opinion.
As for Bidace and Sanson, did they have Covid or not? Looking at the timeline, I’m not 100% convinced. Ten days isolation, isn’t it? So to have been declared fit yesterday, they’d have had to have been identified around Monday the 25th of October. It’s possible, I suppose, but they were certainly okay when we played Arsenal on the 22nd.
Bertrand Traore is still out with a thigh strain and Konsa is of course suspended for this one after his red card against West Ham.
To further back up the “something seems wrong” point, Southampton have a fully fit squad apart from long termer Jack Stephens.
Is that a sign of a club that just does things properly, I wonder?
I could talk about formations and setup and strategy etc, but it’s academic, as our team is pretty much chosen for us.
We have three central defenders to choose from. Tuanzebe is miles off form, so I wouldn’t play him, which leaves Mings and Hause. Will Mings have bucked his ideas up after being dropped last week? He was apparently fuming and it’ll be interesting to see how he reacts, particularly when it seems he isn’t mentally the strongest player. Hopefully, he knuckles down and takes it on the chin.
And then Ings is out, so we’re left with an out of form Watkins up top. Davis won’t be replacing him, that’s a cert. So could he or even young Archer, play alongside? Not a chance for me. Neither would justify Smith going with two up top.
I’d be very tempted to say let’s go with young Archer alone for this game, to see how he copes, but you can only see a lack of service destroying his confidence too. I’m guessing he’ll get minutes.
The midfield is the interesting part. Smith will probably play his usual 4-3-3, with Bailey and Buendia accompanying Watkins, which leaves the three in the middle. McGinn and Nakamba will be two, but who will get the final position?
No doubt it’ll be golden boy Ramsey
So there we have it, I’m actually going to predict the line-up for a change;
Martinez
Cash, Hause, Mings, Targett
Nakamba
McGinn, Ramsey
Buendia, Bailey
Watkins
Sanson and Chukuemeka will get minutes.
How far is that from Smith’s best eleven? There’s been much comment about how the manager doesn’t seem to know his best eleven, but I think he does and that’s close to it. Hause and Naka are probably the only two he’d ideally swap out, I reckon.
Yet I fully expect the same old rubbish we’ve seen over the last few weeks. The midfield will be bossed again and we’ll probably resort to long balls towards Watkins, who is not the big lump you need for that kind of play.
It’s pitiful and I don’t see Smith sorting it out during the international break.
My prediction?
A 3-1 loss again.
The only saving grace is that Southampton are the only team to have lost more Premier league games than the Villa in 2021.
So there’s always hope, I guess.
Come on Smith, sort it out!
Another long post, sorry if I’ve rattled too much.
There’s just so much to talk about, isn’t there?
Another one I’m not really looking forward too.
I really want Smith to get through this, but think it’s gone too far already.
It’s a must win, without a doubt.
Some serious issues to fix and we are seemingly desperate for a win to turn the tide. I dont see it coming tonight. What’s the chances JWP scores a screamer or 2 against us? Followed by Southampton fans calling us out as a laughing stock of a club. I wish as a club we didn’t shout to the world that we are European contenders, because now the pressure is mounting and the players are feeling it plus the confidence is shot and i’m having flashbacks of our relegation season. A match comes to mind. 0-2 up at Leicester. Lose 3-2 and we get relegated. Much like the Wolves match. Lets hope this isn’t Deja vu.
I’m self isolating after testing positive for Covid! A stuffy nose and loss of smell are my current symptoms. Just had a PCR test and awaiting results. Bloody Covid 😡 so it’s not just Villa players after all.
As for tonight’s game I can’t see anything other than a Saints win. As you said Badger, the team is pretty much picked for itself. Just a question of Ramsey or Sanson in midfield and either Hause or Tuanzebe at CB. I think he might be tempted to go with Mings and Tuanzebe because of the left and right foot balance. Prediction 3-0!
Bad luck about the Covid, but at least your symptoms are not severe.
Yes, I realised after I posted that Hause is a left footer. That gives Tuanzebe a chance, but I think Hause offers more, particularly in the air, where S’ton are piss-poor.
We’re in a mess – no doubt about it.
Will Smith play Tuanzebe rather than Hause? Given the reaction to him not being sent off last week and that Tuanzebe in form is a better distributor of the ball (as is Konsa) then he might. On the other hand Hause is undoubtedly the strongest of all our CB’s in the air so Hause for me.
Southampton are in a bit of form and playing a lot better and our record against them (ignoring last seasons rather fortuitous win 0-1) is, frankly, appalling – how often do I find myself saying that?
The real concern is looking at the games coming up I can’t see where a win is coming from without a massive change in form.
The IB may well be a positive given the run of form we’re in and notwithstanding the ridiculous travel and time changes involved. Biggest worry for me is Bailey’s selection for Jamaica whereas we could have benefited from being at VP over the next two weeks – Villa should withdraw him due to injury; if you get my drift.
Back to tonight’s game – a loss but as to the score, no idea – but based on the average of our last few games then Southampton should be good for at least three.
I’m going to be different and say we will keep a clean sheet tonight. Why? Because we quite simply have to and I’m hoping that Smith and his team have identified that this is the issue and worked on it in great depth all week. I’d even take a 0-0 with a strong defensive show, to give us something to build on. Here’s hoping.
I skim read an article in The Mail about us the other day and we’re one of the lowest for chances created. I recall highlighting the shots and shots on target stats early on in the season and saying that it was far too low compared to our rivals. Unfortunately, it clearly hasn’t been addressed and has compounded the problem with the porous defence. We need to get back to basics, and quickly.
Having said all of that, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if JWP scored at least one tonight.
I’m not looking forward to it and will only check the score at FT.
UTV (please)
Some observations from last Sunday – let’s see what has been learnt.
Martinez
He is weak in his bottom right corner of the goal. More that half the goals he concedes are from shots there. It can be a double bluff since Martinez knows that opposition players will have been told to aim there, which is how he got to Arsenal’s penalty. The question is can he adjust his sights during normal play?
Watkins
Lucky to be the boss’s favourite. Villa have learned the best way to get balls up to him when there is a defender breathing down his neck is to hit the pass at least 10 yards wide of both and let Watkins win the sprint. He can only convert one type of cross from the left, that is a side foot volley at close range like the goal at Spurs. On the other side he is much better and needs balls crossed from the right on the deck.
Midfield
Villa’s real problem. Compare Fornals, Rice and Toucek with any midfielders Villa have got. You could make a case that Fornals is matched by McGinn, although the Hammer is a far more composed finisher. Villa have nobody to compare with Rice and Toucek as we saw last Sunday. The Hammers are bigger and stronger than anything in our locker. Which points to our recruitment of a batch of small and tricky players when only one can play at a time and we don’t have the dominating large midfield players. Ramsey and Carney to step up please.
Cash
Has boasted of his speed. OK – but if true why has he been standing around the 18-yard box when the winger is over by the touchline? If you have got the speed go and rub shoulders. A 40 yard cross-field ball to a winger cannot get there if the winger has a fast full back near him – that is how you cut out the easy supply.
It’s now seems you all feel the same way as I’ve been, it’s no good us kidding ourselves we are getting further depressive as games come . We cannot defend him after this game if we get beat as up till now we’ve had excuse after excuse for 10 games now ,refs, bad luck, you name it we get it. I don’t like picking on him because he got us up and I thank him for that, I want us to be back in the big times and he’s at his limitations, Terry didn’t just walk he knows something we don’t, I’m too old to wait when we have two wonderful owners that given all and fans that bought thinking our days are back and being held back with bad decisions and bad luck. Time to get out of that bubble and go for it as the team falling apart now. A loss tonight and that’s it and no excuse will convince me, he’s had it..
Team, Martinez, Cash, Tuanzede, Minns ,Cap, Tagett, McGinn, Nakamba, Bailey, Buendia, El Ghazi, Watkins, Hause on Bench,
Thats a team that can beat Southampton.
I have no complaints about that team. I expect Buendia will be a No.10 and I assume Nakamba and McGinn will be the holding midfielders. Tuanzebe needs to be on his game from the beginning.
One thing is for certain and we really need to start games better and not wait till we are losing convincingly before we start to play.
Martinez, Cash, Tuanzebe, Mings, Targett; McGinn, Nakamba; Bailey, Buendia; El Ghazi; Watkins,
Subs: Steer, Hause, A.Young, Chukwuemeka, A.Ramsey, J.Ramsey, Archer, Davis, Philogene-Bidace.
Hmm, so 4-2-3-1 then with Buendia in the hole.
It’s imperative that he turns up today.
It actually looks a decent setup, as long as players perform.
This one will be down to them, not Smith.
No can’t blame DS. 3 mins. 1. 0
Oh dear
Get that f#ing El Gazi off , he’s a candidate for a sending off.
I see we have another pussy in Bailey, absolutely shit.
Only Mings and Cash seem to be performing. The front 3 and Buendia are non existent and El Ghazi should have been sent off (twice) and Bailey is not helping out Cash at all. I really don’t know what goes on behind the scenes at VP but work rate should be a given.
This games laughable, so many things wrong in the team. Cash drawn out Bailey not helping him , Tagett also going forwards to help El Ghazi and Watkins he’s like a spare prick at a wedding. All in all what a cock up, our central defence is none existent we’re at a stage now we send notes out to players telling them what to do.
Simile of the year award goes to Bill. Let me just jot that down…”spare…prick…at..a…wedding”. Brilliant, Bill! 🙂
Different game second half, what ever Smith said it’s done the trick, game on I think. . We’ve had 4 shots on goal and we have started to play ..
Nakanba off Ramesy on
Come on Archer, the stage is set for you, lad! Some one give him some effing service…
This could be the last 10 minutes of Dean Smith’s reign. 🙁
Is it too late for an eleventh hour hijack of Newcastle signing Eddie Howe?? I’ve changed my mind about him; I can’t think of anyone who could come in to replace Smith and not be a stop-gap panic appointment, other than Howe.