It seems some of you can’t wait to talk about the game on Monday and fair play, it’s now coming into my focus too, so I don’t blame you.
I was contemplating going to the game, but the next I knew, it had already sold out.
If I was at home, I’ve no doubt I’d have sourced a ticket from somewhere, but given that I’m not, I’ll have to resort to watching it on the telly with a beer in my hand and a quick fag break, albeit outside the digs, whenever I fancy it.
Combine this with my poor eyesight, where I’d hardly be able to see what was going on anyway and I wonder why I ever bother going to games at all.
Except for that atmosphere, that you can only get at a football game.
That’s where I get jealous.
A quick look at squad news and we’re all good, with only Nyland unavailable and that’s no great loss. There was a doubt about Axel Tuanzebe, but he’s okay.
As for Derby, left back Scott Malone is suspended, so Cashley Cole comes in.
Duane Holmes was a starter in County’s last three league games but has been struggling with a thigh problem, while Craig Bryson and David Nugent are definitely out.
Not that I’m bothered much by team news.
We all know it’s a one-off game and it’s a bit of a lottery, where it all depends on which team is better on a particular day. It’s a disgraceful way to decide promotion to my mind (worth up to £200 million, depending on what source you read), but that’s how it is and we have to live with it.
So what to think then?
On our part, it’s the usual pleasant problems for Dean Smith, in that he has to decide who starts, with the main issues being Whelan or Hourihane in the middle and Adomah or Green on the right.
I’d suggest Hourihane is a cert, with Whelan replacing him quite late on, if we’re in a good position.
Right wing is a tougher choice, as Adomah hasn’t impressed much lately, but is way more experienced and would probably be my choice to start.
Kodjia could also start there too, but Smith seems to prefer to introduce him late on and that’s wise in my opinion, given that he can replace any weakness on the left, right or up top. I know he’s Marmite amongst us fans, but I think he’s a very useful asset.
On paper, whichever way you look at it, we should win this game.
We’re at nigh on full strength, with a better squad and probably better subs to call on.
Cole playing at left back leaves me thinking that a bit of pace on our part down the right should leave him short, but our crossing isn’t the best, is it?
But the game isn’t played on paper and the way Derby went at Leeds in the second half of the return leg scared me. That was a performance that would have beaten any Championship side at the time.
Even though I much prefer to face Derby than Leeds, they worry me, as if we aren’t at it and they are, they’re easily capable of beating us in a one-off game.
But.
And it’s a big but, if we’re on our game I feel we can win this one.
I’ve been extremely confident overall for a good few weeks now, although that confidence did wain when I thought results didn’t matter so much and my predictions haven’t been far off the mark.
But I’m happy to say it’s now fully returned for this one.
I see goals in what ought to be a very open game, with both sides going for it.
Fortunately, I suspect Derby will go for it more, which will leave them open.
We have a better defence than Leeds and will not be caught out so easily.
And if we are, we have the fire-power to get the goals back.
But, what proved to be Leeds’ letdown was their failure to take their chances.
We simply have to be clinical.
While I see goals, I don’t see that many.
2-1 to the Villa
I’m adding a poll, even though I know many don’t want to predict anything, the way the season’s gone.
Starting to worry now.
Although logic says I shouldn’t be.
Unsurprisingly Poll heavily in favour of Villa win. Wish I was as confident. Family coming round like last year – few bevvies and a barbecue – hope it’s a happier outcome. No predictions from me except ignore the two previous results this season. In fact Derby goingninto the game as the form team. UTV
Badger I have to disagree about Derby’s performance against Leeds. It just wasn’t that great. They were made to look good by one of the worst defences I’ve seen. Without Janssen they just fell to pieces. Twice they allowed Keogh to run from his own half all the way and then gifted a goal and a penalty.
Let’s not forget that Derby also let in three goals over the two games.
We will win – believe.
Pat, i’m very inclined to agree with you.
It’s just that I don’t want to be over-confident.
We all know how that can kick you in the teeth.
Pat 57, thanks for that reassurance. It was that that makes me worry how Derby came at Leeds, I’m hoping Badgers outlook and yours win the day, I’m old in the teeth and praying that we get back where we belong. I’m plagued with butterfly on my allotment and now in the tummy, I know what to do get pissed beforehand and wake up when it’s over.
derbys win at leeds had everything. they tactically had the correct game plan and followed it to the letter. but with all that they had massive amounts of fortune and luck to win that tie.
if they came to wembley with that same game plan and managed again to pull it off tactically like at leeds. then we will have to be on our game. or we will also come a cropper.
i see two major areas for us to be concerned with one is our midfield. i don’t worry about opening them up i think we will manage this. but derby have strong runners who carry the ball from deep. this means if we commit loads forward like leeds did, we will get countered.
also when villa struggle its not just because grealish cant get on the ball. its also when mings and tuanzebe are stopped from bringing the ball out. if derby play two up top. this will stop villa bringing out the ball, which is usually what we like to do. wba did this to great affects and if you look back on the season. the games which villa got pressed high. we tended to struggle in
oh and finally derby will pack midfield to stop us playing and that will mean the wide areas, will be the areas where we can open them up. i expect them to sit deep like baggies but commit loads to quick counters. it gonna be a open game i think, end to end
i will still go with 3 1 villa
All Villans in need of reassurance (not just the 3% who think Derby will win) sholud go to he AVFC site and watch the Tyrone Mings interview.
OLL, on my way…..
Tyrone Mings says he’s “feeling the love” from the claret and blue faithful – and now wants to reward them with a special day at Wembley and promotion back to the Premier League.
Mings has been a revelation during his loan spell with the club and has become a cult hero with the supporters.
He’s aware of that bond and says it’s an amazing feeling for him to have that support.
Mings knows that helping the team to victory at the Play-Off Final would take this bond to another level
Thanks ….oll
I will refrain from predicting the last game of the season. It’s just like a local derby where previous form means squat. On a positive note, we only have Nyland unavailable whilst Derby have a few injury and suspension issues. Not that it will mean too much for a one off game. I really believe that if our big players, Grealish, McGinn, Mings and Abraham are on form then we will have the upper hand. Obviously the rest of the team need to have a good game but recently Abraham and even McGinn haven’t been at their best and as a team our form and results have dipped. Albion stifled us and it nearly paid off although could Derby apply same tactics with the same success? I doubt it somehow. Anything can happen in a one off game and that is what worries me the most. We are the better team if we perform at our best but it only takes one of our players to get sent off for a rash challenge or something and then the dynamics change. I’m really looking forward to tomorrow and dreading it at the same time. That’s what it’s like being a Villa fan I guess. UTV!
If we’re anywhere near being on our game I honestly don’t think that Derby’s defence can possibly stop us. They will need to score but they have the lowest ‘goals for’ in the top six.
Forget the goals against Leeds.Their goalie was so bad that I think they might have done better without him. Leeds gifted them two goals, a stupid penalty and a dreadful mix up caused by the keeper. The other two goals were good but they both started with Keogh being allowed to run all the way from his own half to the Leeds penalty box without a challenge. There is no way that McGinn and Hourihane/Whelan would allow that.
Yes it’s just one game and anything can happen but confidence does matter. Every Derby player knows that we can beat them and playing at Wembley can suck the life blood out of a team. We should know it happened to us last season.
I am going to (once again) predict a comfortable win for the Villa.
COYL
So both play-offs so far end with a last minute goal. Hope that isn’t the case with us as I don’t think my heart would stand it!
Having said that if it’s us that scored the last minute goal I’d settle for that.
Just sent a text to my (now 2) Derby mates;
“The sportsman in me says good luck for tomorrow.
But the Villa fan in me says get f**ked and I hope we spank you big time.”
Instant reply from my long time die-hard Rams mate said:
“I hope we spawn it and nick it late”
Which tells me the Derby fans are not very confident at all.
The much younger and newer Rams mate also expressed concerns, mid week.
God, I really hope we’re not heading for a massive fall 🙁
I think it sounds like we’re all feeling the same: scared and excited. Scared that Derby will play the game of their lives and everything will go against us. Excited that come teatime tomorrow, we could be back where we belong.
I don’t think it will be comfortable. But saying that, I was convinced Watford would give City a game last week. Hmmmm…
I hope the manager and coaches set us up to go for the throat, with the instruction to get an early goal. If we do that, I think Derby will struggle. We’ll hit them on the break as they search for a way back, and their spirit, along with their fans’, will crumble. IF we get an early goal.
The longer it goes without a goal, the more nervous everyone, fans and players, will get. At that point, I’ll probably switch off and write off the tenner I’ve paid for my Now TV day pass. Because Derby will grow in confidence and belief, like an underdog boxer who still hasn’t been knocked down, or out. Then it’ll be who blinks first. Awful. Immense pressure on all concerned, knowing what’s at stake.
We need to start quick, rain in the blows, so they don’t know what’s hit them. Failing that, I’d take a late winner or even a win on penalties. I just hope they can come through and finish the game knowing they gave their all and played their best game, as individuals and as a team. If they do, there’s a damn good chance Birmingham will be rocking by the end of this long weekend.
UTV
And that’s my biggest worry.
We often start way too slowly.
the day has finally arrived thank fook for that. the football league need to arrange these games better. we have been in the final for 2 weeks surely this can be amended the semi final legs had about 2 or 3 days between them. surely they could stretch them out. so the teams in the final don’t have such a long wait with no games to keep match fit.
my biggest worry is with all thats riding on the game today, you might see one or both teams freeze. plus with both having no game in two weeks its game where both teams will start cold. its probably the team with the best peration which will win the day and keeping your nerves
preparation
I think we will win, and i am not nervous about the game, although i will be disappointed if we lose.
If we win DS has to rebuild the team to compete in the premiership, especially because of the loan players situation and the higher quality of the opposition, and we would in all honesty probably struggle all season.
If we lose DS will have to rebuild the team for another season in the championship especially because of the loan players situation, but i believe we would under DS go up next season as champions. with a very entertaining season for the fans in doing so.
So all i am saying is dont be so nervous, enjoy the game and hopefully celebrate the victory, but if we do lose we still have a great seasons entertainment to come,
Nice article in the Guardian here about Smith and gives a personal insight into his pain that his dad, who has dementia, is alive but doesn’t know that he’s now Villa manager.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2019/may/26/dean-smith-aston-villa-championship-play-off-final-derby
A nice quote that I suppose we should all take on board –
“I know people say it an awful lot, but I don’t get too high or too low. It’s a game.”
“Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I don’t like that attitude. I can assure them it is much more serious than that.” to quote Bill Shankly!
I wish I didn’t get so worked up about a game of football. I certainly cope better with defeats than I used to but football and Villa are part of my DNA.
I have no idea what will happen today. My biggest hope is we play at our best because our more recent Wembley visits we have been poor. Play like we did in our 10 win run and we will be fine. UTV!
Same result as the 2013 Capital One Final-Swansea v Bradford,5-0 to Villa,Tammy Abraham hat-trick.
Hourihane and Adomah both start.
Getting really nervouus now.
COYL!!!
Anyone know of any streams ?
I don’t and wouldn’t risk it either for this one. NowTV for me.