Hitchens60 has offered the following thoughts about incomings and outgoings at the club.
Cheers, Hitch.
Now that we’ve secured our immediate premiership future, thoughts turn to next season and the need to strengthen the squad; to bring in that bit of quality that we all recognise is missing.
Before looking at our playing squad, it’s also relevant to consider the management issues, particularly around our transfer strategy last summer – I’ll ignore the January dealings as it’s almost impossible to improve a squad at a sensible price during that window. We tried and, frankly, other than Reina we failed. Suso has gone and I reckon there will be few, if any, Villa supporters shedding tears; rather it’s good to see Purslow and the Villa owners recognising that he really didn’t contribute anything that couldn’t have been achieved by Smith.
Continuity has to be the new mantra at VP, so major changes should, if possible be avoided. Smith should stay and he’s earned that. Whether JT stays I suspect may be down to two factors – does Smith trust him or does he want to move on to management – time will answer those questions. I’ve no doubt we’ll appoint a new DoF but Smith should be directly involved in the choice and his (DoF’s) role needs to be clearly defined. Smith must have the major say in transfers.
Turning to the squad the challenge will be improving it without major surgery – so again continuity is the key. The squad is relatively small which should help in that regard. But, before thinking who should go it’s important that we keep our better players albeit large fees may be tempting for the owners. As I see it, we do need to keep Mings, Grealish, McGinn, Luiz and Konsa in particular.
Who should go – well Drinkwater and Reina are on loan and should return to their clubs (Baston has already departed). However, it would be interesting to get views on Reina returning next season as GK cover assuming we could get him on another loan.
From the current squad – who should go?
Goalkeepers – Nyland and Kalinic but that then leaves us with only two senior GK’s (Heaton and Steer) with uncertainty over the fitness of both – hence my question above regarding Reina or do we splash out on a new keeper – such as Ben Foster from Watford?
Defenders – recognising that we need squad players I am only advocating Engels as a definite. But what about Elmo, Hause, Targett and Taylor? Given that we don’t want to make wholesale changes will age become a deciding factor or should EPL experience be the driver? And what about the forgotten right back James Bree? Chester it seems has been released.
Midfielders – Jota and Lansbury are definite for me. Nakamba I think will be retained as a squad player. Then there’s El Ghazi and Trezeguet – both of whom seem to blow hot and cold. Trezeguet has 7 goals (as does Hourihane) and El Ghazi has 7 assists each of which is second only to Grealish (10 goals and 8 assists) in stats – I can see one of the two moving on particularly given Andre Green to come back from loan. Hourihane is the marmite midfielder but with 7 goals and 7 assists would you keep him?
Forwards seem a little more straightforward – Hogan and Samatta should move on although I could see the latter staying – even though he doesn’t look Premier quality – as I suspect he’s not on a big wage. I see Davis having real potential and would retain him – there was a significant improvement when he replaced Samatta on Sunday.
I started by saying continuity should be the way forward but how do we improve the squad and avoid major surgery? However one looks at it, we are going to need at least five or six new players – let’s hope the owners have deep pockets and we don’t have to fund transfers by selling any of our better players.
I’ll leave it to others with more knowledge than me, to suggest who our targets should be.
It’s interesting that many seem to think Samatta is poor and Wesley was fine before his injury.
My opinion says totally the opposite. Wesley was absolute garbage nearly every game he played and Samatta showed more in his first couple of appearances than Wesley did in half a season.
Wesley definitely seems one of those who gets better, the longer it’s been since he actually played, imo.
In fairness, Samatta was poor after the restart.
But I’d expect them both to given the season to see if they can push on.
If we want any chance of keeping grealish the owners need to sign at least a 2 or 3 top players at prem level including a proven goalscorer. Wesley and Samatta may come good down the line but lets not take another chance. Some people are saying Calum Wilson.
Interesting thoughts Badger and Hitch.
For the first time in years we could have a transfer policy which is evolution rather than revolution. I guess my approach is who is a nailed on player and then work out the gaps to fill with new players.
My starters next season based on being fit and not be being sold.
Heaton
Konsa. Mings
Luiz
McGinn Grealish
Wesley
Priorities:
1: Wide player – must be creative. Trezeguet as back up and sell El Ghazi.
2: Striker: I’d go for Wilson from Bournemouth. As soon as Barry starts to come through then sell Samatta. I really want Davis to add scoring to his fantastic hold up play.
3: Creative Midfielder: Someone young and grow into role.
4: Centre Back:
5: Left Back: Targett always seems to be out of position. Solid left back this year and sell Taylor. The year after new right back.
6: Goalkeeper: Young back up.
I really hope that if our owners want to splash the cash, e.g £120m (doubt it but use last years figure) then it could be 1 x £50m 1 x £40m 1 x £20m and 1 x £10m.
I’d be happy with:
1: Winger: Said Benrahma
2: Striker: Callum Wilson
3: Midfielder: David Brooks / Todd Cantwell
4: Centre Back: Lewis Dunk
I’ve gone for people I know about. But like all us I will get excited if associated with someone from abroad – I always fall for it and think they will be a world beater!
Goalkeepers are crucial. Ramsdale an exception, not one of the 3 worst keepers in the division but still relegated. Buy Foster someone suggests – you must be joking.
Sell Heaton – he lets in too many goals and always has. You cannot ignore the stats. Just think for a moment – if you offered Dyche cash and Heaton back in exchange for Pope – would Sean croak ‘How much money?’. Like hell.
Possibly buy Reina or look abroad for an experienced man. We could benefit from better full-backs but I cannot think of any here for sale.
Much more available would be an ageing but still capable striker like Giroud. We have heard the Purslow philosophy ‘ Buy young and improve’. But you are taking a gamble that they can be improved. The quality needed is sufficently rare that I reckon there is a 90% chance of failure. In that case its is as expensive as hiring experience – without the guarantee of performance.
OLL – I think bringing Reina back would be a sensible move particularly if we can get him on loan or on a free as I believe he has just one year left on his contract with AC Milan.
GK and a striker have to be top priorities. Other than Nyland and Kalinic, I’m not even sure we’ll have any fit GK’s for the start of the season – now there’s a truly scary thought. Seems unlikely that Heaton or Wesley will be available or fully match fit much before Christmas (Both cruciate injuries on New Year’s Day)
Johan Lange appointed as Forector of Football from FC Copenhagen. They have a great record for finding quality players at a good price. No doubt Villa hope for some of the same, but also no doubt that being Villa in the PL prices will be higher. Looks like a good move and obviously has been in the pipeline. Wonder if it would still have happened if we got relegated
*Sporting Director not DOF but not sure there is a difference
Interesting DSV. I think the change in title is significant and I hope gives Smith (and his management team) final say in the acquisition or sale of players. I hope his role is more about scouting that transfers and involvement in the academy – which again should be the prerogative of Smith.
My only concern is the difference in quality between scouting players for Copenhagen and players for the EPL – will he be able to quickly understand the difference (not that I can claim to be knowledgable about Danish football)
I must say I was hoping for someone with EPL experience to be appointed.
I think I’ll reserve judgement.
I find myself totally underwhelmed with that appointment.
I don’t know what I was expecting tbh, but I think I was hoping we might get someone in who’s actually achieved something in the game.
I get a nagging feeling that we’re going down a similar road to what we have previously.
But that said, he does seem to have done well, albeit Scandinavian footy and FC Copenhagen are an entirely different setup to what we have;
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11931483/fc-copenhagens-transfer-triumphs-johan-lange-explains-their-success
Beat me to it Badger.
I’ve read the linked article and I do like some of things he was saying – particularly about stability within the club, an identifiable playing style and philosophy together with a close working relationship with the manager. BUT the comment that the achievement at Copenhagen is awfully difficult to replicate resonates strongly!
Are we now officially a selling club?
Certainly seems like it to me Hitch.
Of course, being sucessful and improving as a club goes hand in hand with making profits on players and no doubt it’s the former that we’re supposedly aiming at.
But look at how Southampton were churning players out a while back.
It hasn’t done them much good, has it?
It’s great bringing players through and improving them.
But if all you’re going to do is sell them off at every chance, it’s pointless.
Hopefully, we’ll be able to improve value and keep them at the club.
But if the whole deal we’re offering kids is to improve them and move them on to top clubs, well, it hardly breeds loyalty, does it?
I see the Barcodes sale to the Saudis has fallen through…
Good.
I assume the Prem couldn’t safely work out who would really be in charge?
Johan Lange? I’m of the same opinion as most in that I will reserve judgment till end of season. Smith MUST have final say on incomings though. I do wonder whether the idea is still to bring in promising young players to raise their value for resale. O’Neill suffered this when his team was being ripped apart, leaving behind the average ones that no one else wanted. Our owners must play hard ball although admittedly it’s always the players who call the shots by forcing the moves. It will be interesting to see what happens before season kicks off again.
Part of the O’Neill scenario Holte was, I assume, Randy not having two dimes to rub together after the financial crash and his divorce!
We have two billionaire owners who you would think could afford to buy and develop players without having to sell them on to finance the club – always acknowledging the negative impact of FFP designed to protect the richest clubs.
Mind you I might sing a different tune if we were one of them 🙂
It seems to me the key to next season in part revolves around specific decisions.
What is the philosophy of the club? Sell your best player and re-invest?
Or keep your best players and build around them?
What will be the recruitment structure?
What role will Smith/the manager have in this?
It’s clearly been identified that recruitment needs addressing and positive that the hierarchy have ruthlessly identified this.
This appears to exonerate and strengthen Smiths position.
The Grealish Situation needs to be resolved quickly or it could dog next season. Clearly recruitment hinges on whether to build around him or without him. I like to believe Villa don’t need to sell are financial secure and should do the former. This would send a strong message to the top clubs. We are building for the top half of the league next season.
Personally I would like to see players of proven premiership quality come in, (best players from the relegated teams?) Id add Ben Foster to those mentioned, possibly Danny Welbeck though I’d prefer Danny Ings. I’d agree with Callum Wilson and David Brooks
Possibly a gamble on a couple of players from either the championship or European leagues but quality over quantity is key this season.
Just a thought – will removing Suso and replacing him with Lange mean that we will be late into the market?
I assume the owners / Purslow will wait for Lange’s input before making any moves even though Smith will probably have his own thoughts. I also wonder whether we will wait to see whether Brentford get promoted as I suspect Smith still has eyes on their better players.
Ooh, good question.
I’d guess we’ve been speaking to Lange for a while, because things just don’t move that fast otherwise.
If so, I’d expect Lange would have been given an outline of what we want and Lange would already have some sort of list drawn up.
So no, I don’t think we’ll be late to the market.
The Brentford point is a good one.
I’d prefer Brentford to come up, because I like their style.
But obviously that’ll mean higher prices for their players.
Thing is, if we’re looking to poach genuinely decent proven players from other clubs, the Sky 6 will already be in there with offers of £50m+. Currently the best we can hope for is those who haven’t quite broken into regular first team squads at the ‘Top6’ like Luiz and hope they come good. We certainly don’t want to get stuck with another Djemba-Djemba scenario.
Even if we got £80m for Jack, does 4 x £20m make us a better team? McGinn was a steal and has been valued at over £50m, so who in our squad is accurately valued at £20m?
That’s another good point.
It’s said that we spent a fortune last season, but it’s easy to see that even £200 million doesn’t get you a lot these days.
I’m going to stick my neck out and predict a similar spend this season to last season.
£100 million on 3-4 better players and probably £40 ish million on 3-4 lesser known gambles to pad out the squad.
Sell Grealish, Mings and McGinn and we’re at a different level.
Say £60 mill for Grealish, £30 mill for Mings and £40 mill for McGinn (very interested to see what people think about those figures/guesses, fwiw, so feel free to comment) and we could be in £250 million territory.
Now that would surely massively improve the team and squad??????
Not that I see all three players leaving.
Badger, I’m not in favour of selling our three best players to fund investment in the team. That smells of yet another rebuild – we need to build on what we already have. Not sure we have to worry though – attached link includes a very positive statement of intent from our owners.
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-transfers-sawiris-edens-18692125
And with Sawiris / Edens it’s not just hot air unlike our previous two owners who were big on rhetoric and short on actually delivering anything.
In fairness Hitch, the owners haven’t delivered anything yet either.
Both Lerner and Xia spent big in the first season, after all.
This season will be much more defining and if they’re as ambitious as they make out, we’ll get a genuine marquee signing.
A Zaha or a Coutinho or similar.
I’m not saying they’d be the right choice, but just someone who will make the rest of the league sit up and say “bloody hell, the Villa look like they’re going for it.”
And there are no excuses such as Covid or whatever.
There are many foreign clubs that are practically on their knees financially and are desperate to offload massively overpaid players.
Unearthing cheap gems is notoriously difficult.
Picking out genuine class is easier, albeit much more expensive.
Do Sawaris and Edens have the guts for it?
We’ll no doubt see.
But if we go for a load of unknown gambles in this window, it will only be a matter of time before we’re looking for new owners, imo.
I’m sure most new owners come in thinking “yes, a quarter of a billion should do it”, but we all know it’s not that easy.
I have nothing against our owners at all.
But if they’re ambitious, they’re going to really have to show it.
Badger, I get all that but then we have marque players on stupid wages like Bale and Ozil who are quite happy to sit out their contracts (even if they’re not playing) because no one else is prepared to meet their wage demands. I do not want players like that at Villa.
It’s a minefield. We want a balance between young, talented and ambitious players and those with experience that actually want to pull a shirt on every week. In this latter category Giroud was mentioned. Whilst we might have a ‘buy young’ policy, bringing in players like Giroud (and Reina for instance) on short term contracts would, in my view, make a lot of sense.
Funnily enough, they’re two of the players I had in mind.
I’m not sure what’s happened re Ozil, but Bale has tried and performed from what I’ve seen.
It seems he’s done his bit, but the manager has made it blatantly obvious that he doesn’t like him.
So much so that he’s basically said “sod it, if you don’t want to play me (and I’ve done my best), I’ll just take the piss and play golf while you pay me a fortune”.
I can’t say I blame him.
The point there is that I don’t think he doesn’t want to know.
It’s academic, because I wouldn’t expect us to push the boat out quite that far.
But there are players out there, that while expensive, can still be good value.
Tbh, I can’t remember what the owners promised us before the season started.
But I’ll bet it was better than where we ended up.
Actually, having thought about it some more, I think it’s that snakey get Purslow, I don’t like.
Or trust.
I don’t want to sell all 3 either.
But I’m realistic enough to see that we might lose at least one.
It was just a worst case scenario, which would actually give us a massive pot to play with.
As for our owners, well, I would hope you’re right.
But I have very little trust now for any owners, particularly if they’re not British.
The British game just isn’t in the blood, like it is for us actual British and while owners have always been in it for the money and prestige, it seems different now and it’s just a big gamble that bites the vast majority on the arse.
Blame Lerner and Xia for that.
Disagree Badger. I understand the wariness following Randy and Xia but I think Sawiris and Edens are completely different.
UTV
I’m gonna be brave and say all 3 will stay.
Danny Mills point about whick club would he fit into is a good one. Liverpool, Citehaand ManU have players already. Spuds can’t afford him. Chelsea?????
If we can justify the same spend as last year along with players that may just start to bed in, things may work out.
I could see Reina getting another short term deal…,maybe until xmas, just until Heaton and Steer are fully fit.
Defensively, Elmo and Taylor are decent back up players and do the job when asked to. Im not convinced about Engels, but Konsa and Mings seem to be starting a good partnership.
In midfield, Hourihane cant be a starter. Either we set out to play Jack at no.10 (if he stays) or we look at buying another quality AM.
Its up top we need to spend the money. I would jump at the chance at offloading any of our wingers and Samatta to be honest. I really like the look of Benrahama and Watkins if Brentford dont beat Fulham. Although the need for Bournemouth and Watford to sell makes their players look very interesting too.
Whatever happens though I will be happy…as can you imagine what would have happened to our squad if we went down….?!!!
it will be interesting to watch us this off season, smith knows exactly what we need or what we lack. i don’t think we are too far away from a good solid premiership club again. imo we need more depth of squad and a few more players that can carry the ball forwards past their markers. we struggled early in season doing that. which was why jack dropped deep to get ball. but mcginn and luiz back we looked better.
ball carries are important when teams are well matched or defending deep and compact. we had to commit too many forwards to open teams like that up early in season. then we risked too much and conceded too many goals and chances over committing. after covid our balance was much better. we had luiz and mcginn who both carry the ball well and this helped to keep jack further up field,
if we were more potent in the forwards area we wouldnt need to over committ as much and all the time. so this i think will be the area smith addresses. el ghazi and trez need too improve or moved on. wingers job is to supply /create but they rarely managed this. they were poor at carrying the ball too. maybe they need time. but i would definitely add two players who will compete with these two for starting roles, maybe the added competition will lead to better showings.
Nath, I’ll go along with that, I’ve been a big critic of Smith over the last part of our season but God knows what he might have had to put up with, now with Suso gone I’m ready to give him the benefit of doubt and play it has he sees it. I don’t think we will lose our best lads money don’t come in to it with our owners, they didn’t become millionaires walking away, I see Villa becoming the club we all want we won’t struggle again like this season and all it needs is better luck and not like we’ve had of late. I’m ready to support my club ..
Here’s a goalkeeping link. Also a comment about our U23’s GK might explain why we let Sarkic go. OLL – what do you think?
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-transfers-roma-olsen-18696896
Can we have Bale please? Even Christian Bale will suffice… Cuz he’s Batman!!!
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-transfers-grealish-lange-18690294
This is a longish article about Lange and Villa’s strategy for the future under his role as Sporting Director – but it’s well worth a read – which is not always the case with the Brum Mail.