First off, I want to say that I am of course totally elated that we earned promotion.
Everyone at work was asking how chuffed I was and I’ve only known most of them for the last few weeks.
It’s because I’m always going on about the Villa, hence everyone knows I’m a fan.
But I commented that I felt strangely calm after the game was over and I’ll expand on that shortly.
First off, while Sky thought it was a good game, I didn’t think so.
I think the occasion got to both teams, which is no surprise as it often happens, but I just felt neither side were as creative as they have been this season.
I’m not alone either as the one Villa fan working with me agreed that we’d been below our best for the last four or five games.
Still, there’s no doubt we were the better side overall, albeit with a worrying last 10 minutes or so and there were no complaints from my Derby supporting mates who said we deserved it.
I don’t think any player stood out, but El Ghazi did well, along with McGinn and Hourihane too, who struck me by actuallly getting stuck into a few tackles. Still, it’s a team game and overall we were better than theirs.
I still think it’s a terrible way to lose out though, as we know to our cost last season.
So why was I so calm then?
Well, I was actually that calm, I lay down to contemplate what I was going to write on here and promptly fell asleep, staying the same until it was time to get up for work; a full eleven hours!
It’s the realisation that getting promoted is only a small part of the job.
While the win was great, my thoughts immediately shifted to asking how are we going to stay up next season? and contrary to some Villa fan who was on the radio this morning predicting we’ll be in the top four next season, the reality is we’ll be lucky to survive.
Which then led me to thinking about who we need to keep and let go.
Who is good enough to play in the Premier league?
And this is where you’re going to have to forgive me, as although it might seem I’m being ruthless in my assessment, I just think I’m being realistic.
In my opinion, Jack Grealish will be good enough, as will John McGinn, who I think will set the league alight in the same way Milner did.
And then I have to think harder.
Mings makes the cut, but will have to be less sloppy, as he won’t have the time he’s been given in the Championship. Hause maybe makes it too.
Taylor simply isn’t good enough and although he’s improved lately will not make the grade in the Prem. Elmohamady isn’t Prem standard either.
We’ll definitely need a quality DM, as I’m guessing Jedinak will leave, as will Bjarnason, although Whelan might have done enough to get another season.
I have serious doubts about Hourihane too, at Prem level, the same as Lansbury, who can’t get a look in as it stands (I know he’s been injured).
El Ghazi will either be brilliant or utter rubbish, I can’t decide.
Adomah is done and Green still isn’t ready, so we’ll need a better RW.
Kodjia just about makes it because he is decent backup across the front.
And I have my doubts about Abraham. He’s a good player, but I don’t think he’s come of age just yet and couldn’t see him getting us more than 10 goals in the Prem., which is decent, but would it keep us up?
I haven’t massively analysed things, but it’s more a gut feeling.
Hence, it seems obvious to me, we need a big clearout and that’s without all the deadwood the club carries.
Of course, we’re going to have to keep some of the players I’ve mentioned, as we don’t have a bottomless pot of money to do a Man City type spending spree and FFP probably won’t allow it anyway.
But we’re going to have to spend some very serious money whichever way you look at it.
I saw a Daily Mail article today, which suggests Norwich and Sheffield will have around £20 million to spend, while we’ll have £50 million.
If that’s the case, we’re all relegated before we start, in my opinion.
What does an average striker cost these days?
There’s the argument that Fulham spent £100 million plus and changed it up too much, yet they’re still relegated.
But do we think they’d have had a hope in hell of staying up if they didn’t go for it? I don’t.
And yes, Wolves have done extremely well, but they were head and shoulders above the rest of the Championship last season and we all know about the level of player they brought in. Which means they’ll prove to be a bit of a one-off. Indeed, if you look at history, they are a bit of a one-off, as the majority of promoted clubs go straight back down.
The good news is Dean Smith has a good eye for a bargain.
But he’s going to have to go some to bring in lower league players who are able to perform at Prem level.
It’s going to be very interesting times in the next few months.
Ooh, do I need to don my tin helmet?
Actually, no… I, for one, am in rough agreement with you.
I am not so hard on Hourihane or Taylor, though; I think they still have a future at VP.
As for Abraham. I don’t think he’d be worth the money if we bought him and he’s unproven in the EPL. I actually think Benteke might be more value, if Smith could fit him in; he has the experience and presumably is aching to re-live the old days.
If we can get El Ghazi, Mings & Hause permanently I think they’ll all be acquisitions.
>Good< acquisitions
Benteke is scraping the barrel; think big FFS! I don’t mean big money wasted. I mean a top quality number 9 that we may not even have heard of yet. Savo, Juan Pablo, even ‘Tekkers’ back in the day. Had anyone heard of them?
Badger – we’re pretty much on the same hymn sheet although some of the players you mention (Taylor, Elmo, Lansbury for instance) will have to stay as we need squad players to cover injuries, suspensions etc. Imho, this is where the problems lie – we can afford to strengthen in the positions you mention and our first choice eleven (or so) would hopefully be enough to keep us up but lack of squad depth quality will be the real issue and you need years in the Prem to achieve that.
On specifics – Fred Gilbert is an unknown quantity – did we buy him assuming another year in the Championship? We need a new LB, Right Winger or attacking wing back (Joe Lolley for my money) and a defensive mid (on balance I would also give Whelan another year). Essential we keep Mings and Hause and I would like to see Tuanzebe back as well – so we need 3 new CBs! I’ve become an El Ghazi fan! We need a new CF and I’m not totally convinced about Abraham – Maupay perhaps!
Those to go – Richards, Jedinak, Bree, McCormack (pay him off), Hutts (with our thanks), Uncle Albert, Gardner, Hogan (Davis offers more I think), Bjarnasson, De Laet (?) and Nyland – I may have missed a couple.
On that Mail article – they also referred to ‘our Chinese owners Dr Tony Xia’ so accuracy not at the forefront!
I think your correct to to temper expectations for next season Badger, as i agree with your assessment and i will be over the moon as they say to finish 17th and stay up, so anything higher than that will be a huge bonus.
And the reason all promoted teams struggle and several other premiership clubs fight relegation each year is simply FFP which is designed to keep the top rich clubs at the top, so even if our owners told DS he has 1 billion to spend , he simply could not because of FFP. So it has to be done over several seasons and in which time you have to survive in the league or your back to square one.
As for the playing staff i believe most of us pretty much agree on who should stay and who should go, with the odd exception. and i am sure DS and his team know that too. so i believe you will see some loans signed up permanently but others will not be back for next season. And we will make maybe 1 or 2 at most marquee signings, with a couple signings in the £10 million bracket, and any other new players will be loans again.
However i believe we will survive and stay up over the next several seasons, and give us time to be able to compete at the top end, and i believe this simply because in Dean Smith and his team and the new owners we are much better position then at least half a dozen clubs to do so.
Sheff U
Norwich
Brighton
Southampton
Burnley
Bournemouth
C Palace
as i believe we have a better manager or a better financial footing (now) than all these clubs
So i am for one very optimistic for the future, but i know it wont be easy.
That’s a good point.
I actually think we’re the club most able to stay up out of the promoted sides and certainly some of the other clubs you mention are on a downward spiral, just the same as we were when we got relegated.
It’s about momentum, the feeling around the club and the available resources.
In that sense, we’re in a very decent position.
‘Finish 17th and stay up’? I depair. What the F did they put all that effort to get promoted. Why did Edens and Sawiris buy the club? Why would a top man like Purslow come to Villa? No. That’s a, frankly, shit mentality that I don’t see in the people running the club. The fact that Smith and Purslow didn’t want a parade speaks volumes. They’re ambitious, as are our owners.
Chill out people. Life is like a wheel. We’ve been on the bottom, dragging up shite, for a few years now. The wheel is definitely on the up…
I might put £50 on us to win the Premiership just for a laugh!
…or should I just give the money to charity???
All very reflective and sound comments on the team.
The key for next season is for all of us to hold our nerve. A friend of mine, a Boro fan told me a few years ago he enjoyed the Championship, as you get to see your team win regularly. And there in lies our future problem. Next season it is very likely we will go on runs of not winning for weeks! Unlike previous regimes, we have the right set up. More importantly we have a manager and captain who are Villa through and through. Just need everyone to stick together and support each other. Always remember careful for what you wish for. Do we really want a Learner, Garde and Richards leaderships for Villa again?
As who to buy, I’d like to see loan deals for Mings, Hause and El Ghazi made permanent. Tuanzebe would be a good addition but but sure Manure will do business. With regards to Abrahams there may better value for money strikers about, for example Maupay at Brentford, who has skill and aggression. I also hope we pick off a few of the up and coming Championship players. I like the idea of Lolley from Forest, especially as he is a Villa fan. Also, Kalvin Phillips from Leeds. I think these three would fall in the £10-15m bracket. All could have long futures at Villa and be worth significantly more than we paid for.
Agreed Sidforever, we only have to learn from Fulham after they got rid of Jokanovic in mid November and look what happened after he had gone. They might still have been relegated but I think he would have turned things round given more time. We need to unite and keep faith with Smith regardless of how we start. The names of players linked with us would be good acquisitions at sensible prices, even if they don’t play regularly, particularly Lolley and Maupay. Just another thought now we are promoted, isn’t it time to redevelop North Stand to get 50,000 plus capacity? We desperately need to match those who are already there, such as West Ham, Newcastle, Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham, Manchester City and United. Chelsea are upping theirs soon too. We are already years behind in growth and need to start catching them up.
Another good point re; the North stand.
The trouble is you need something to back it up before you can justify development, although that doesn’t affect FFP at all.
I’d guess it would be on the agenda maybe next year, if we stay up.
Totally agreed, we need to expand capacity to keep up with the others, though.
It certainly is an important summer ahead for us, we’ve reached where we desperately needed to get to but that’s only the start. We need to stay here now and kick on. Let’s hope we can do it.
Might be a bit early to be talking about signings, but I think we should go for Wilson from Bournemouth. Just off the back of an incredible season, now in the International set up and would he really cost anymore than being mentioned for Abraham?
I agree with the cautious approach. History will tell us a lot of what we can expect – and we’ve never done well when we’ve had too many changes to the personnel… That’s ultimately what relegated us imo, not the quality of personnel. By the time we’d made so many changes and got on a losing stream, our confidence then was unrecoverable.
Do I think it’s possible we can do better than just survive and do better? Absolutely – but I think that’s a small percentage of chance that will happen. For me, I think everyone in the first team who has a current and active contract, we keep, even if we replace with stronger first team members and retain them as back up. I’d definitely release Jedinak, Hutton, Adomah.
IF we can sign our loan players (have to agree on assessment of Abraham, but if we can afford him AND someone like Maupay, I’d get them both), and add a couple of quality wingers and a DCM of Gueye’s pedigree, then I think we could be ok. It certainly makes me wonder what would have happened to Villa the season we got relegated if Smith had been in charge, playing the type of football he can get us playing… I can’t help thinking we could not only have survived but had quite a reasonable team there.
And to add a controversial name to the mix that others have mentioned, Daniel Sturridge. No transfer fee, so the risk would only be his (inflated) salary. I’d take him on a year long contract and see what he could do for us. IF he can stay fit, I think he’d be a blinding signing.
Just watched the AVTV Purslow / Dean Smith interview which I recommend.
Badger, you’ll be pleased to hear that Purslow shares your dislike of the loan system and I paraphrase:
‘We’ve had players which we don’t own, we’ve improved those players and now their parent clubs will charge us more to buy them because we’ve improved them and consequently their value – that’s a terrible business model and you can be assured we won’t be repeating it – that’s on the record we want to own our players’.
Overall I got the impression that the club is now (at last) being run professionally by experienced people from the owners down.
Bring it on UTV
Hitch, Purslow is like a breath of fresh air after the likes of Faulkner and Fox!
Spot on Holte
All hail Christian Purslow!!!
Cahill on a free now?
No.
Never go back, imo.
No. Old, slow, and too high wages. The people who run the club would never sanction such a signing. It’s Richards and Lescott part 2. Won’t happen. Look forward, not back!
Sign Mings and Hause ASAP and test United with a realistic bid for Axel. Wouldn’t 20 million get Axel now? 25? Add one more with PL experience, and the central deference is sorted. Not to mention Chester…
A valuable interview Hitch. And though Christian does not like the loan system it was what we needed to get promoted. He is right as per your quote – and yet it is ‘try before you buy’. That is hugely valuable, but you only see that value in the failures. In the successes – that you want to buy – the sellers want you to pay for improving your player and it hurts. But think of the money you could save on misfits. I will take the bet with Christan now, that before next season ends we will have players in the first team who are on loan.
No word of JT. Hopefully Dean persuades him to stay at least until Christmas. If we are going to recruit the next Son Heung-Min or Mohamad Salah who are wanted elsewhere, with respect to Deano, they won’t know him. But they will know the former Chelsea and England skipper who can influence the deal.
OLL – good points on the loan system. I suppose, like all things, it’s an investment judgement – for instance we dodged a bullet with Carrol and I agree with you that we will have no option but to use the system to some degree.
On JT, I’ve read a couple of quotes being attributed to him that, whilst he has ambitions to manage, he feels he can still learn a lot more working with Dean and Richard O’Kelly so is content to stay at Villa at least for the time being.
I’ve just watched that AVTV interview and it is very interesting.
Fair play, both of them credit Bruce for signing McGinn and Purslow specifically states that Suso had a lot to do with signing Mings and Hause.
There was also a comment about wanting to sign players who want to play for the club and having the right positive attitude, which spoke volumes to me about where we’ve been for the last few years.
Purslow certainly talks the talk, but Smith seems pretty aligned with what he was saying.
Recommended viewing for any Villa fan, imo.
Badger, what’s with all the negativity? Are you serious or just trying to stimulate comment on the site?
Every team, every year, in every league is looking to improve on what they’ve got, regardless if they’ve been promoted or established in a given league. So yes, you make some valid points about the current playing staff. Of course, if better players than the current 11 can be found and signed, they will arrive. But how does that spell relegation?
I made the point about ‘expectation’ immediately after the match, as did Dean Smith in his post match interview. If you expect to be relegated, you will be. If you expect to finish in the top half, you probably will. If you expect to finish top 6, you might. If you play every game expecting to win, you’ll definitely win more than you lose.
An interesting point made on 5live tonight during the game, with the commentator paraphrasing Petr Cech regarding the mentality in the Chelsea dressing room during his time there. The mentality was that it felt like they’d lost even when they drew. In other words, for them, it wasn’t OK to drop points. That must be the message in any decent dressing room in any sporting domain. It’s not OK to lose, or even draw. That expectation will see us competing in the Premier League, and I’ve no doubt the squad will be strengthened significantly in the summer.
What’s all the talk about bargains and loans? I thought we just banked 170million? And no doubt season ticket and shirt sales will spike…
Things are good, Badger. Please don’t piss in everyone’s cornflakes!
UTV!
I’m always trying to stimulate comment and debate on the site BFR, that’s the whole idea of it 🙂
But I am serious at the same time.
It’s not negative to be realistic.
Expectation can be a double-edged sword.
it’s great if the players and staff have it.
It’s also good if the fans have it too, until things start going wrong when it becomes really negative
i prefer to look at the reality, where most promoted clubs come straight back down.
That said, I did previously reply that we’re the club most likely to stay up, out of this year’s top 3.
I just prefer to keep expectation low while hoping we do better than mere survival. That way I’m much less likely to be disappointed 🙂
https://astonvilla.vitalfootball.co.uk/smith-classy-message-to-bruce-after-villas-promotion-success-was-spot-on/
I hope me posting this article is OK with all. I just think the ability to recognise and respect all the contributions made to pulling our great club out of the mire represents everything that makes the Villa and it’s fan base so special.
There’s no point making the effort to get promoted if we go into it expecting to go straight back down – leave those thoughts with the bitter and twisted who resent our success. Obviously not all of the Championship squad are PL standard but it will be interesting to see who mature – I think Green for one. Plus we have a couple of gents in charge who seem ready to spend serious money to replace those who aren’t up to it.
Roll on August.
Abraham is as yet unproven in the Prem, but hasn’t really had a chance. Remember he is still only 21 and had a year at a struggling Swansea when he was only 19. He is a goalscorer and will only get better with Deano’s coaching team. He won’t be able to play a lone front role in the prem and needs more support.
I think his immediate future depends on events at Chelsea. If they keep Sarri and manage to delay the transfer ban, then I can see Chelsea loaning him to us for another year to get experience and see if he is up to it. If Sarri goes and the ban starts now, they will need him back.
If we can get him for another year on loan I would take that, and I would go for Kemar Roofe to partner him.
Dwight Gayle on Villa’s radar – good move? Accept lots of names will be linked.
Gayle would be good. I’ld prefer him to Abraham. Maupay being suggested too. As you say, loads more will be linked.
DS, in Birmingham Live Villa are preparing to smash the transfer market giving 20 million for Maupay, how true that is remains to be seen.
I like him but I hope not. I posted the same on another blog, but I just feel that for our main striker, we can’t take bets on. If you look at Maupay’s stats, he’s no more prolific than Hogan was before joining us, and he’s only done it over the last season, not that prolific before. I personally see him as big a liability (even more so going into the Prem) as Hogan was for us. Any investment in a striker needs to be for someone who has either proven it in the top flight abroad, or already in the Prem – or it’s too big a risk. I’m happy to bring in Maupay IF we can get someone like Gayle, Strurridge or another foreign import.
Decent article in the Guardian about Villa’s priorities for the Prem –
https://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2019/may/30/aston-villas-top-priorities-prepare-premier-league