I’ve not been too active on here of late and I apologise for it.
Things have conspired against me somewhat and I was frankly too busy to find time to write anything on Friday.
The truth is also though, that I frankly just haven’t had sufficicient interest to be bothered.
It’s not that I don’t care. I do massively and that will never change.
But it just feels like the wheels have come off our season. It’s all a bit uninspiring, as is the football in particular.
We’ve looked clueless for at least a couple of weeks according to the vast majority of us , but I actually think we’ve been poor since pretty much the turn of the year and have said so.
It’s possibly just a poor run of form. Combine it with by far our most influential player in Grealish being out, coupled with Matt Cash, who for me has been eye-opening in showing how much we lack without him, also being injured and it’s all quite understandable.
The good news is that both will probably be back for the Spurs game and we’ll hopefully begin to see a pickup in our form.
What’s been concerning is how we’ve looked a different side with a drop off in form and a couple of injuries.
It’s not to be unexpected of course. After all, I wonder how many of us would have predicted that we’d be guaranteed safe this early in the season?
Certainly I’d got us tagged for 13th-14th, something in that sort of area.
So if we didn’t pick another point up this season, we’d have already done okay.
But as it stands we’ve done brilliantly. So much so that if you were to add in games, such as Sheffield, we could easily have been ten points better off. That puts you on a par with Chelsea and that’s without thinking about it.
Of course, if every team won the games they “ought” to, things would look different, but I’m sure you know what I mean.
The point is the season is already in danger of becoming a big anti-climax.
Which led me to thinking what we can possibly do to prevent a similar situation arising next season.
I know it’s all conjecture and speculation on my part and I’ve often said that I’m not a fan of that sort of stuff, because it’s invariably wrong.
But if we just call it what it is, ie 100% guesswork on my part, perhaps that helps clarify where I’m coming from.
So what do we need?
The goalkeeping doesn’t even need discussion does it?
Unless Heaton agitates for a move. The reality is he isn’t going to get a look in if Martinez is fit, so it’ll be cup games only. Would he be okay with that?
Even if he did end up going, we’d still be in pretty good shape and I’m not even going to counternance the idea that Martinez will be going anywhere.
We’re actually in good shape in defence too. Matty Cash is a great left back. I’d release Elmohamady for a last payday and just think Guilbert will be gone, regardless of what I think of him. So competition for Cash, it is then.
I should probably jump in here and say that I don’t understand how we’d we able to spend much money, but think that we probably will, which means we have to move up a level if we’re too improve. £10 million players are not going to cut it now, but the full backs is where you might get away with it.
Targett has done superb this season, but he also needs competition. Taylor’s contract is up at the end of the season and I just can’t see us renewing it. I some like him, but I’ve never rated him and don’t think he makes adequate backup for where we want to be. So a right back too.
Central defence is probably good enough too. I still have issues with Mings at times, but there’s no doubting that his game has improved. Hence I have to look at the statistics and admit that my opinion of him was totally wrong and we’re in a good place. I believe Hause is good back up as is Engels, even if I think Dean Smith isn’t convinced.
So we may see a central defender in, but I doubt it. We have bigger priorities.
Defensive mids and both Luiz and Nakamba are very inconsistent, but I believe Luiz has room for improvement and we should remember he’s totally pulled the strings for us at times. Nakamba is what he is and if we had boatloads of money, I might replace him. Otherwise I think he’ll stay and I’d be okay with that.
And then things begin to get a lot more complex.
The obvious one for me is Ross Barkley. I like him, because he has flair skill and all the right attributes. But he can be poor as well. Has he done enough to justify us buying him at £40 million or whatever it is?
As it stands, no, not by a long chalk. So he goes back to Chelsea.
Trezeguet? I really like him, but if I’m being ruthless, he goes, the same as El Ghazi. I don’t think they will, because they’re both good enough for the squad. Unfortunately we just need better.
Traore is listed in the official squad as a forward, but he’s more of an attacking midfielder type to me, so I mention him in section. I think he’s too inconsistent too, but he won’t be going anywhere and he will continue to feature. I’m fine with that as he does have something to offer and when he’s performing, is very good to watch.
Morgan Sanson won’t be going anywhere either, that goes without saying.
I can’t say I’ve seen much in Jacob Ramsay up to now, but he’s one for the future. I could argue that I think he’s getting too much time, but it is good that Dean Smith is keeping a lot of faith in him. The question for me is how long does he get to really start to show something?
And here’s one that might upset some of you.
How long does John McGinn get to start performing? It seems like blasphemy to even ask that, but if we’re being honest, the vast majority of us think he’s been awful ever since he came back from injury. How long do you give a player to start showing some form? Well, he gets the rest of the season. He even gets a while next season. But what happens if he hasn’t started performing by the winter window? It’s a long way off and I just hope he comes good before then. But the harsh reality is that he’s been nowhere near the player he was in his earlier Villa peak.
Again, we need better than he’s been playing.
Grealish doesn’t even need discussion.
And finally, Strikers.
Ollie is the main man and playing a blinder. He’s beginning to look very tired to me, but it’s to be expected.
He’ll still be the main man next season. The good news with him is he’s not the finished article and I look forward to him improving. I just hope we can supply adequately to keep his desire going.
Wesley will be the interesting one. I’ve said many times I don’t rate him, but that doesn’t mean I’m not willing to give him every chance. He’s been out for 15 months and reading between the lines, is still weeks away. I seriously wonder how that will have affected him and have a nagging feeling it won’t have been in a good way. No doubt we’ll see.
Which leaves Keinan Davis. I like him. When there was talk about him going to Derby, my Derby supporting mate asked what I thought. I replied that I thought he had the lot. Except that he just doesn’t score. We seem to like to hump the ball at times and it seems to me Davis is exactly the type of player you bring on to lump it to, as part of a close front two. He then just holds the ball, to relieve pressure if we’re under the cosh or he knocks down for Watkins.
Unfortunately Smith will not and never will play him like this. Hence my opinion says Davis playing in the middle with Watkins moving out wide, to not feed off anything Davis gives, means Davis is a total waste of time at the club.
If I was him, I’d be demanding to go out on loan to a club that would play him to his strengths or sadly, just bang a transfer request in. The money might be good, but the manager is destroying him as a player, in my opinion.
So where does that leave us?
Goalkeeping is fine. The defence is okay. The attack isn’t brilliant, but things aren’t desperate either. Could we use another striker? If Wesley doesn’t turn out okay, we’re definitely short.
Which leaves the midfield, which I believe is where all of our issues are. There’s not enough creativity and not enough goals. Grealish has got 7, as has El Ghazi. I’ll include Traore, who has 6. And then next highest is Barkley on 3.
And a massive issue is we don’t have a simgle player who puts a decent cross in. When Elmohamady is your best bet, there’s a problem. Forget Hourihane. I have and he will not feature next season because he just isn’t good enough in open play.
A lot revolves around how much money we have to spend, but I’d like to see a couple of quality midfielders in and would expect that’s where any money will be concentrated.
It’s been a very decent season, which has led to massively raised expectations, which is perhaps making our current drop in form seem a lot worse than it really is. I’d expect us to pick up again, especially when grealish and Cash are back and firing, meaning we’ll pick up more points.
Hence we’ll have progressed.
That’s about what most of us wanted isn’t it?
Why can’t any one of our players actually cross the ball?
55 mins. 0 shots.
Then 2 shots in seconds ha ha
Badger in relation to players to buy:
Totally agree with your analysis. When it comes to midfield and strikers. Watkins and Grealish only two midfield players who are real premier quality. All others be wary about being replaced.
I like cash but is he thick or what? Never dive in for no reason just asking to give a penalty.
Ron, im not into 1 touch football and believe wing play helps to draw halfback and full backs out of position, our problem is and 8 games tells us we are a 1 man team, our midfield is rubbish so are our wing play, we lack a creative midfield and if we hadn’t had the points would be in relegation position. Mcginn bless him is not our answer nor is Tres and Traore, our centre backs and full backs are ace, we need to buy and most of all a plan in our games. Mid table is the best we will get and the way it’s going is our management up to it. I still cannot understand that that was a penalty as the ball was out of play and not a ball to have been used to cause a goal. Football is football in my eyes.
I disagree about the wingers, Bill. Grealish on the left can go wider and cross but also come in and be a ’10’ within the 3 forwards. Likewise Ollie on the right. For me, unless you can get world class wingers, it’s pointless. And these days a world class winger, like a Robben or a Ribery is basically a striker who can go wide, hence my original point. If that doesn’t convince you, look at the best player in the world, Ronaldo. A winger ‘by trade’ original, but ultimately a brilliant forward who can do everything in the final third, most importantly score goals!
As for the ‘penalty’, you beat me to it. If that’s a penalty, my gran’s a gorilla. Take a bow Mike Dean. Another comedy masterclass. VAR? well, I’ve said it before. The word begins with ‘c’ and ends in ‘rrupt.’
Final comment. Kane for the penalty – brilliantly quick thinking and ‘professional’ to exploit Cash’s ‘rush of blood.’ But, ultimately, cheating. Nobody bats an eyelid because it’s the golden boy from Spurs. If it was Jack, there’d be a shitstorm brewing right now.
Out.
Lineker, with Sours bias, says Kane was “a tad unscrupulous.” In other words, cheating, as I said. So why can’t VAR see it, then book Kane? Oh yeh, cheating, again.
The game’s rotting away and is a ‘snapshot’ of society – over-reliant on tech to the point of morbidity, stupidity and corruption; I hope it’s not gone past the point of no return. Maybe some protests are needed from footy fans; everything else is being protested about these days! Sorry to get too political. I used to love football, but the life is being choked out of it. So sad.
*Spurs bias
I understand that B F Ron, that’s what I’m getting at ,,so two of our best players play wide, but what we have are not good enough are they, even Dean Smith identified we are not good enough in the final third. Dean Smith doesn’t have a plan B in any game we play, its the same rhetoric every week sticking on Barkley and we all know he’s not what we want not dynamic in any match, Mcginn his taking the stick now because he’s th only one to run his arse off going nowhere, West Ham solved their problems and was on the same par as us at the start ,look at them now we have not got the players in our locker we have to buy and bring on young hopefuls that are asking to play .
Smith out
Total rubbish
We are probably competing with Sheff Utd to be worst team in the league at the moment. I’ve turned it off. Better ways to spend my time
Please explain to me how it’s a penalty when the ball out of play or going out of play. My thoughts are we are not good enough in midfield and our wing play is useless in crossing and creating chances. We are a one man team .
Watched 10 minutes either side of half time, That was more than enough for me.
Some big decisions need making in the summer. But Smith needs to be thinking about them now. People keep commenting about how poor our wingers are. Fine. Do the top teams play with a lone striker and two wingers? No. They play with three proper forwards, or strikers. This summer’s transfer window is the most important in a generation. Despite the form, we are on the cusp of something, but it can easily be squandered with poor recruitment this summer. In my opinion, poor recruitment would be anything less than two prolific strikers. Personally, the wingers have to go completely. Get two strikers, blood Louis Barry and play a proper 4,3,3: Jack on the left, Ollie on the right – but NOT as a winger, and a transfer record breaking number 9 in the middle. Or a free Sergio Aguero, even better.
I know this is ‘fantasy football’, but I’d go back to Brentford for Toney, genuinely try for Aguero, then you have a forward line of Jack, Aguero, Watkins, Toney, Traore, and Barry. Sell Wesley. Sell Trezeguet. Probable sell Anwar, although I think he can be coached to be a ‘poor man’s Mahrez’.
We can but dream. Names, aside, the wingers are neither here nor there. Put some proper strikers up there!
Our players can’t cross. Anyone see Albrighton’s corner for Leicester’s third goal today? (slaps forehead)
QUOTE “I like cash but is he thick or what? Never dive in for no reason just asking to give a penalty.”……..The alternative was do nowt and Kane crosses. Matty slid to stop a cross and Kane jumped on him……
If he had just stood up the ball went out for a goal kick. Kane was too clever he knew what Cash would do.
Been saying that for weeks, yes I’m lucky in the fact I can watch all the games, that corner was a peach of a cross. ex Villa player let go and a winger.
Exactly my point, Bill!
As a few of us feared/expected we have a decent first 11 but little in reserve. For me, if we are to improve on this season the key areas to strengthen are:
Up top, Oli should be main striker and the way he plays dictates our system and vice versa. No one know how Wesley will return from injury and Davis doesn’t cut the mustard for me. I don’t imagine it’ll be a marquee signing but possibly around the £10m mark.
Right wing, Traore’s a tricky player and can be great but he is inconsistent, one footed and lacking pace, pace we desperately need as shown by our dip since Grealish’s injury. Trez works so hard but lacks quality and should probably move on with a big signing coming on as first choice RW – £25m
Centre Half, I rate Engels but it looks like Smith doesn’t so I’d imagine he’ll go and a back up will come in £6m
Left back, Taylor’s out of contract and we need competition for Targett £6m
Number 10 – desperate!! Barkley nowhere near good enough and an alternative needs to be sought £30-35m
Davis to go on loan
Elmo and Taylor released
Guilbert bought back into the fold
I’d let Heaton go for £5m
Engels £6m
Trez £8m
Hourihanne £8m
Well also be receiving money for Kalanic and Samatta who’s loans are made permanent £8m
Net spend around £40m and a very good first team squad
Pretty much agree with BFR.
Analyse Watkins as a #9. #9s who can do it all are almost once in a generation. Ian Rush, Peter Withe, Didier Drogba. Most good centre forwards manage half to 2/3 of the skills. What Oli is good at is: 1/ back-to-goal, taking the long ball forward down and shielding it before passing, 2/ closing down the oppositon’s back-line passing, 3/ running the legs out of his marker.
What he cannot do well is out-jump a defender when under pressure and head the ball down powerfully. Nor can he shoot hard enough to score from 20 yards. He is only average at guessing where a loose ball will drop.
A striker who would complement Watkins could be in the mould of Kevin Phillips, Son, or Armstrong at Southampton. I am not sure Tammy fits the bill.
OLL, that’s the thing, imo.
There is no striker that will compliment Watkins.
It’s not how Smith wants to play. And it’s exactly why we should let Davis go, as I said in the article.
Smith wants 3 forwards, not 2 or 3 strikers.
There’s a difference. Forget the old school striker, whose job it is to put the ball in the net.
He wants exactly what you’re asking for. The complete striker.
Except he will only enter the box when the right chance arrives.
He’s trying to use our wingers in that same way, except that’s not what they’re good at.
Actually if you watch, they’re not even being played as wingers.
When was the last time you saw one go in behind?
Answer, they just don’t. They always go inside.
It’s noticeable that the only forward who presses the opposition’s defence is Watkins. Trezeguet, Traore and whoever plays the No. 10 role sit far too deep. When I watch Citeh or even Leeds there are much higher energy levels. Considering we have a young team then I find it disappointing that we look so lethargic all the time. I don’t believe it’s down to Covid like some people suggest. Plus the nonsense that Barkley is still getting back to fitness is nonsense IMO. When we beat Arsenal 3-0 and Liverpool we were full of running. I blame the coaching staff and the players for letting their standards drop. Call it complacency if you like but work ethnic counts for a lot and currently there aren’t many earning their wages. If we spend the rest of the season free falling to just above the relegation zone, we should all be disgusted and disappointed about a missed opportunity to finish top 8 minimum. Also it will make it a lot more difficult to attract the quality players we need.
Well, in for a penny – thoughts on the summer.
To my way of thinking there are some high probability events:
Elmo, Taylor, Engels and probably Heaton (because he wants guaranteed first team football) will leave as will Hourihane. Not sure whether Kalinic and Samatta’s loans have a permanent deal option but add them to the list – transferred or released. I think Jay’s valuation might be a bit optimistic but importantly it takes a lot of money of the wages bill.
I don’t think Barkley has done enough to warrant a permanent transfer given the fee Chelsea are likely to demand and his wages. The issue here though is how Grealish might view that in terms of the club’s ambition. So if not Barkley then I think a real statement investment in a midfield player is highly likely.
I agree that Guilbert will return and Smith has as much as admitted that. We do have to invest in a left back – Rico Henry from Brentford? We have promising youngsters in both full back positions as well.
We also need another centre back if Engels is to leave.
I like both El Ghazi and Trezeguet but they are squad players at best. Of the two, I would probably keep El Ghazi but I think one will move on. Traore isn’t going anywhere soon so we need an additional wide player. I would play Watkins wide left and Traore on the right. Wide left is Watkins natural position and would allow Smith to introduce an out and out central striker. Davis is not good enough and Wesley remains a question mark.
So, in addition to investing big in an attacking mid field player, I would go for a central striker Aguero’s been mentioned but he wouldn’t come even if Villa wanted him – which I doubt. Quality central strikers are as rare as hen’s teeth so not really any idea who but maybe someone like Mitrovitch would fit the bill? I see that Tonev from Brentford has been mentioned – don’t rule out Smith raiding Brentford again although it’s likely to depend on whether or not they get promoted.
Finally, if the club’s strategy around young players is to be believed then some of the U23’s need to be stepping up to the first team and soon.
Trust me Hitch, the strategy around the kids is just lip service.
And will remain so until we’re in a nice safe position where we can give them games.
Oh, er………
I find it unbelievable the way some supporters have turned on Smith already.
I’ve just seen one comment asking for Lampard in and another calling him “poison”.
Wow 🙁
Badger, I’d dare say that these individuals may well be blue-noses who are exploiting the totally fake world of social media to do anything they can to destabilise AVFC. There are many sad and sick people out there with nothing better to do than to sit behind a screen causing mayhem, misery and general negativity. If the trolls can target individuals they decide they hate, why not a football club? It’s a crazy world. I hanker for the 90s, pre Covid, pre 911, pre internet…but alas, here we are.
Badger, all clubs have fickle fans and we have more than enough. We all get brassed off when we lose or after poor performances. I’m sure even Sir Ron had bad runs too although we remember the good times because he was able to build a team over a period of 5 / 6 years. Smith has made progress every season so far when it’s much more difficult to compete with the money bags Sky 6.
Patience is a virtue worth remembering even when we are dissatisfied at times.
Well said Holte