BFR has posted the following.
Cheers mate and if anyone has any thoughts, post them up;
What if History can Teach Emery and Villa a Vital Lesson?
Much was made of Unai Emery’s impressive record of scoring in every match prior to the disappointing 1-0 defeats at Molineux and Old Trafford as the season reached its climax. Had Villa managed to score and take a point in those games, they would have finished above Brighton by one point in 6th and qualified for the Europa League rather than seventh and the Europa Conference League.
Small margins – the ‘what if’ of our last Premier League season.
Wind the clock back 30 years, Villa’s inaugural Premier League campaign is also remembered – and always will be as a ‘what if’ season.
It is worth considering that despite the ‘champagne football’ served up by Big Ron’s charges in those simpler times of the early nineties, Villa failed to score in 10, yes TEN of the 42 games played that season – almost a quarter of the campaign. The explosive ‘deadly duo’ of Deano and Dalian completely misfired after Christmas, Atkinson’s injury before the festivities the catalyst.
With Tony Daley’s brilliance already missing through an early season injury, Villa were never quite the same in the final third which would prove to be their undoing.
Meanwhile, Cantona, Hughes and Giggs pulverised their opponents to the end.
Four of those ten goalless games were 0-0 draws, three of which were at home: Blackburn Rovers, Tottenham Hotspur, and Coventry City, the latter on the infamous Steve Bruce, Fergie Time, Sheffield Wednesday weekend.
The other 0-0 was at White Hart Lane, Erik Thorsvedt producing a masterclass to deny a rampant Villa.
We lost the league in ‘93 by a perceived ‘massive’ 10 points that season. But had the Villa managed to get one – just one – over the line in those four games, they’d have clawed back 8 points. Which means United win it by a mere 2 points. Close, but not close enough. But hang on. There are still another 6 games in which Villa failed to score. The final home game of the season was a devastating 1-0 defeat to battling Oldham, handing the title to United on the proverbial silver platter. If Villa win that, as they should, they take the title by a point, still with 5 goalless games: 1-0 defeats away to Norwich and Palace, 2-0 away to Saints, 3-0 away at Coventry on Boxing Day and away to Blackburn late in the season. Score one at Norwich and Palace and it’s another 2 points and the title is Villa’s by 4 points and one game to spare, the last day defeat at Loftus Road academic. In short, score 6 more goals and Villa win the league. Small margins.
Incidentally, that same goal drought would prove to be a problem for Big Ron’s side in both the previous season 91-92 and the following 93-94.
All of this analysis is irrelevant unless applied to the season which all Villa fans so eagerly await and anticipate.
The latest debate revolves around whether Emery has enough in the final third, with legitimate question marks over Cameron Archer’s and Jhon Duran’s inexperience, and even Ollie Watkins’ proven capability of going on a goal-drought of his own.
Not to mention injuries and suspensions.
Does Emery have enough to prevent those devastating 0-0s and 1-0 away defeats?
History has shown that the difference between glory and a lingering, bitter ‘what if’ is goals. Plain and simple.
Not bucket-loads, just a nice steady flow throughout the season with no unexpected and damaging barren spells.
Assuming Emery’s defence remains as resolute as last season and there’s no reason to suggest why they shouldn’t, scoring in every game, at least once, must be high on the manager’s agenda. If Villa can do that, Villa fans can dream.
What if we win the Conference League? What if we finish 4th and qualify for the Champions League for the first time in the club’s history? What if we get to a Wembley final with a manager of Emery’s calibre at the wheel? All spectacular and glorious ‘what ifs…’ which are all quite reasonable and realistic targets for the coming season.
IF the goals keep flowing.
If, however, the frontline falters, all associated with this great club will once again be left with bitter disappointment and a list of ‘what ifs’.
Here’s hoping Villa have created a new history come May 2024.
BFR
Good analysis and history lesson. I totally agree we need a partner for Ollie or someone who drops in behind him but a different sort of player to Ings. Competition for places is also healthy. One thing that is markedly different from the heady days of Big Ron (minus his 3 Degrees), is that in todays game goals are expected from players whatever their position. All our defensive back 4 or 6 contributed last season as did our midfield so the role of a true striker is different to what it used to be. The likes of Kane and Hangeland are rare and that’s why they are so highly valued.
JPA Mk2 would suit us down to the ground…
Here’s hoping indeed.
I’ve never got away from the premise that the whole idea of the game is to score more goals than the opposition.
If we can do that much more often than not, we’ll do ok.
Your examples show exactly what goals mean.
Exactly, Badger. It’s all about goals. Fail to score in a match and you’ve basically failed the game.
Interesting post BFR – and a lot of research!
Fwiw I think Emery sees scoring goals as being the responsibility of more players than just the number 9. How many goals did Kane score but Spurs still failed to qualify for Europe.
In that regard we’ve added Diaby who should add to our goal tally this season playing in the 10 role as a false 9 – I do love this new football jargon – wish I knew what it meant 🙂 . Tielemans is also capable of scoring goals from midfield.
Losing Watkins for an extended period will be a challenge but even if we were to buy another striker it would still require us to change our game plan because Watkins is pretty unique in the way he plays. Notwithstanding I think most Villa fans would like to see another experienced striker come in but will they offer any more than Archer / Duran – that’s Emery’s call.
Just want to comment on 1874’s post on the last thread viz Juventus agreeing not to play in the Conference so as to avoid a future risk of being banned from the CL. It’s very important to Villa as it now means we’ll be seeded for the play off round and should, therefore, avoid the bigger clubs in the draw. Hopefully this will result in us qualifying for the group stage.
Another post that crossed, Hitch.
Yep, agreed, the aim must surely to be to spread the goals around.
It makes sense, as the oppo don’t know who to target.
Oh, btw, sod Juventus.
This was already pretty much a done deal and it makes us serious favourites. It’s ours to throw away, as we ought to have by far the superior squad for this competition.
Not as much research as you’d think required, Hitch. That season is etched in my memory in detail, as I almost wore out the season review VHS when I was 11 years old, and I often go over the what ifs I’ve described in my mind. But it is literally score 6 more goals and history states Aston Villa, Premier League champions 1993. 6 goals the difference. Not 10 points as the record shows. That’s the type of scenario I hope Emery can avoid.
Bum bum, you posted while I was writing my post.
You’re right. The 20 goals a season striker is now a bonus in today’s game.
I made this point a while back when someone complained that Watkins isn’t the out and out finisher that he’s supposed to be.
I agree Watkins isn’t all that, but it’s more about what he brings to the game that is why managers value him, imo.
That said, goals are still the overall requirement, but it doesn’t matter who gets them, as long as they come. That’s why Emery looks at productive players coming in and no doubt non productive players leaving.
I have faith that we’ll get more goals this season.
Totally agree that they don’t have to come from the forwards – that’s a good point. But they do have to come, and the goalless games that Emery avoided for the most part must be kept to the bare minimum if the Villa are to go to the next level.
Totally agree with this Badger. For any of us who players FM, then that 20 goal a season forward seems fairly easy to come by and we assume real life is the same, but one of the first things I do when I see ANY team in the PL linked with or signing a forward player is to look up their scoring stats, and it blows me away how rare it is to find a player who scores over 15 a season. I think the above about scoring from all over the pitch is the way forward. I think today’s result was a huge positive in that respect. Konsa and Cash both scored goals today that any forward would be proud of.
So Wesley has moved to Stoke.
Sadly, I predict he’ll be a failure there too.
I really hope not Badger – he’s been delivered a sh*t hand with the injury and deserves a break.
On Watkins – in addition to the wider contribution he makes (no pun intended) he may not score 20 goals but he’s one of a very few strikers who consistently score in the mid / high teens per season.
I think we all saw the improvement in his performance following Emery’s arrival so looking forward to seeing how many he can bang in this season.
UTMV
Adama Traore on a free anyone? I would definitely prefer him to Bailey and our current Traore.
With regards to the post by BFR, I think if a proven striker was available then yes we could do with another option if Ollie picked up an injury. However the modern game seems to have goals spread amongst the team rather than pin the responsibility on one player. It was probably Pep’s Barcelona I first saw playing without a renowned striker but still scoring plenty. We now have Diaby who can play any position across the front 3. Archer hopefully will stay and play from the bench and cup games to establish himself as a good alternative to Ollie.
I remember Big Ron’s Villa go close to winning the first premier league and often wonder what if? I suppose Big Ron’s cavalier style of playing also meant we didn’t have consistency which Fergie’s team had.
As we approach the new season, I feel a lot more optimism than many others because we have a brilliant manager / coach in Emery, who has the ability to do what his predecessor’s lacked, which was to manage the game depending on how things were going. He usually gets his substitutions spot on too.
Being a Villa fan, I always have that sense of caution holding me back from getting too excited.
BFR “What If” indeed.
What if Herbert Chapman hadn’t had been at Arsenal back in the 30’s? We’d have probably a few more league titles in the bag?
If Jimmy Hogan’s (the father of total football) young Villa side would have had time to flourish?
If Sir Ron’s tenure hadn’t been curtailed by in club politics?
We have BFR a long history of what ifs, just maybe this time it’ll be a different story 🤞
Dunno what to make of these pre-season friendlies. I struggle to get my head around the Yank commentators. Quite a few Villa shirts there but loads of others too. Some fine passing by Villa on display. If that’s the shape of things to come it’s going to be an interesting season.
It’s been comical how many goals there have been. Mings gave it away in an interview the other day…almost like it’s been scripted for the US audience!
Still got to question not needing a better back up for Emi.
“If wishes were horses, beggars would ride.” I have a few ‘what if’ memories of my own, and an old one – which still rankles because Tony Cascarino writes a column in the Times – is him heading over an open goal at the San Siro.
On to the present and the Watkins examination. He does not strike the ball powerfully, unlike Harry Kane. Several Kane shots pass within reach of the keeper but are past him before he can stretch out an arm. Kevin Phillips and Michael Owen did not have a powerful shot either, but it can be compensated for by other attributes. Watkins may benefit from crosses from the right and on the ground, which Villa may now supply.
Defences which worked well against Villa were those who could double up to defend against our left-side attacks. Now if we could attack down the right as well this season it will be very hard to shut Villa out.
I’m sure Phillps had some power in his shots, OLL – recall him scoring some screamers for Sunderland. As for Kane, I know it’s beyond the realms of possibility, but, assuming FFP is not an issue, I’d go all out to sign him. He’s not going to get a move to one of the ‘bigger’ clubs. Villa is now a step up for him and big enough. European football (which he won’t have at Spurs if he stays this season) and a real chance to win something with a manager who knows that he’s doing, which he’s never done. I know there’s no chance, but I think there should be.
I see Emery has confirmed that he’s happy with Olsen as our number 2 GK and has no plans to add a new goalkeeper to the squad. Perhaps comparing any ‘reserve’ goalkeeper with Martinez is difficult
Anyway, he’s the coach and it’s his call.
I don’t get it. Olsen is so poor with the ball at his feet. He really doesn’t suit Emery’s play from the back style
In Unai we trust.
With Emi as No. 1 Olsen really hasn’t had a look in. However, I’ve seen Olsen play really well for Sweden so I’m not so sure that he’s as rubbish as some make out. With us being in three cup competitions this year, I guess that Olsen will get a good run out and we’ll see how good he is then (or not).
Anyway, totally agree with RSS above.
Something wrong with the site Badger, the comments box blocked off with the unhappy face.
The Villa- Brentford game was semi-serious in the first half, but descended into give-everyone-a-game farce after half time. Semi-serious bar the try something new instruction Villa ‘s starters must have been given. Failures were Philogene on the left wing and Torres at left back. In fact I think Torres will fail anywhere in defence in the EPL until he builds his physical strength. Successes were Konsa’s running and shooting for our first goal and Cash scoring with a left foot shot. Then Diaby showing he can score from wide right as easily as from wide left.
Brentford lured all of Villa’s back line into their half before a run from there had their striker inside the area before Konsa caught him with a tackle from behind. Penalty 0-1. Torres was easily beaten at LB and a great curling shot into the top corner exposed the US knowledge about goal nets. 2-0. That ball went through to the hoardings. The nets were not secured at the base. Later a shot into the side netting ended in the back of the net owing to the same fault.
The plus points were the improvement in the passing accuracy of every Villa player. Also great movement off the ball to give the carrier options. Some niggles were harder to erase – McGinn will still try a shot even though the path to goal is blocked. And Watkins – did I say he will enjoy centres on the ground from the right wing? He got his first on a plate and blazed it over.
Watkins is really frustrating! He had 3 easy chances today and squandered them all. The first one was a cross in from the right by Diaby which he blazed over. The second he had a one on one where he rounded keeper but heavy touch put ball out for a goal kick. The third one was a cross from the right again along the six yard box but he didn’t read it when he should have slid in for an open goal.
This is the big problem with him and I don’t know if he ever will have a goalscoring instinct. He works hard and does well with his back to goal but as commented on already, his inability to convert simple chances will cost us points. The problem is finding a striker who is ruthless in front of goal is a rarity. There is plenty of creativity now Diaby has been signed. McGinn is relishing the more advanced role and Philogene has done more in his few games than Bailey all last season.
One thing is for sure and that is Emery has us playing a really impressive offensive passing game and we constantly cut through Brentford’s midfield.
Spot on assessment, Watkins – normal service resumed!
We should have won that at a canter ( but for Watkins), at times the passing movement were sublime.
Some issues – Buendía was IMO woeful, dwells to long on the ball and his distribution is terrible, I’d play Bailey all day over him.
Only a friendly so it doesn’t really matter but food for thought for Unai.
Guys, I see your point but it’s a pre-season friendly. We could also be critical and say our defence shipped a shed-full of goals but they were exhibition matches.
Let’s see what the season brings!!!
Roll on the PROPER Barcodes game!!!!
I have to agree about Buendia. He frustrates me so much, like Bailey at times i’m pulling my hair out in frustration and other times i’m like wow that was quality. He’s too hit and miss (probably more miss) and has been since he arrived, I don’t know if that will ever change? Plus what frustrates me the most is that when he does lose the ball he throws his arms up and has a paddy instead of working his arse off to win it back. My personal choice would be to get rid of Buendia and Coutinho and bring in Eze from Palace, very consistent, improving leaps and bounds and plays in the number 10 role which is an area we need to strengthen.
Not sure I agree about getting rid of Buendia – although Emery and his coaches still have work to do on him to try and make him more consistent and effective.
But if anyone came in for Couthino, I’d expect Villa to bite their hand off and admit that bringing him to VP was a big gamble that simply didn’t pay-off. Big wages, nothing to show for them.
I like Buendia and that scouse bloke picking his mate over him was one of our primary concerns not so long back. For the record, I did hear the commentator say that he was low on battery when he came on, but was being given a runout nonetheless. He does need to kickon but I wouldn’t read too much into yesterday.
By all accounts Buendia was brilliant against Newcastle at the start of the tour. But to me that’s always been the issue with him: one game he looks like the finished article – the dog’s cojones, as it were; but a week later it’s like he’s made no progress since his Championship days wt Norwich.
He was brilliant at Norwich in his second season (then we bought him). I would settle for that. He really wouldn’t need to progress. 3 goals or assists per 4 games? When have we last had that?
When all players are fit, then Buendia and Bailey will be bench warmers. A front 2 of Watkins and Diaby with a ‘box’ midfield of Ramsey (when fit) and McGinn in front of Luiz and Kamara is how I see Emery playing. While Ramsey is out, I think Philogene has earned a start based on the USA trip.
Coutinho simply has to go due to his wages and injury prone issues.
Fernan Torres is continually linked with us and would offer another attacking option.
I’m looking forward to the next couple of weeks to see who goes and who comes in.
Good, entertaining article.
However, ‘what if’s’ apply to every club. I am sure Arsenal can’t get the ‘what if’s’ out of their mind after last season.
If you look back at that season, how many ‘what if’s’ were Man Utd denied?
With that being said, I am sure this article is about Aston Villa getting the better of the ‘what if’s’, and the grand scheme is about whether we can finish in the big moments.
You are correct. The ‘what if’s’ for Aston Villa will be a make or break next season, and we will all be eagerly there for it…
UTV!
Cheers, Bradley. You’re right, of course every club has their what ifs, but we only care about the Villa! And I wanted to make the point that the margin between glory and failure is often incredibly small and that I hope Unai and the players have that in mind at all times, so to push for that extra goal when it matters, as shown in my very real examples!
BFR, I enjoyed the article – remember that season well.
And it also struck me how many times even in recent seasons we could have finished rather higher up the table than we did; narrowly losing games 1-0, or drawing, that we were expected to win (especially against teams that were below us at the time), the home games (in particular) that we didn’t win when they looked sure-fire bets, etc.
Those relegation escapes under Dean Smith would have been a lot less stressful, and we would have been much more comfortable in mid-table those few seasons ‘if only’ we’d scored a couple more vital goals to get 1 point insted of none, or 3 points instead of 1.
But as Badger said, that’s what football is basically about. Hopefully we now have a manager who’s a perfectionist and can make the difference to those very fine margins.
Thanks, Ardent – appreciate the feedback! I, too, am hoping this exceptional manager – probably the best Villa have ever had – can make the difference and eek out those odd goals which can change history. We’ll soon find out…
Tyler Adams?
No thanks.
Who?
Mid fielder – American (might even be captain of the USA side) – plays for Leeds. Is rumoured to be available for £20m as a result of Leeds being relegated.
Suffered with a number of injuries last season which probably affected his form.
Highly rated by some ‘pundits’ – personally no idea. :-;
Sounds risky, Hitch. Although, 20 million is peanuts these days…
He’s a sorta Xhaka type of player imo,far too busy mixing it to play football.
I don’t think we need another defensive midfielder, we’re already blessed in that department. He was a standout player for Leeds but in a poor team and the injuries is concerning. IF we were to take a Leeds player it would have to be Gnonto IMO. Still feel that RB cover is needed as is a better reserve GK (but Unai seems to be happy with Olsen). I don’t see us doing much more business now unless we get some injuries.
Agree completely.
However, I think we might see one or two more departures when it gets to the ‘panic’ end of the window. If only somebody would make an offer for Couthinho…
Watkins misses a penalty! Do we not have a better penalty taker in the team? I never feel that confident when he’s taking pens.
Not surprising Adam – he’s missed more than he’s scored.
Agree with you; surely it’s time someone else took on the role.
McGinn?
Dont anyone tell me that we cant have Couthinho in our squad. He was silky and took his medicine and just got up and got on with it. Good team performance and isn’t it always good to stuff the italians.
Have to say that, after forking out a fiver to AVTV, I feel like I got my money’s worth.
Big caveat is that Lazio are a week behind us in their preparations but remember that they have Sarri as their manager and they were the best of the rest in Serie A last season after Napoli. Indeed, the class of team that we might expect to meet in the final of the Conference League.
Both Villa teams were terrific with Tielemans a stand out. Ten out of ten for me, he ran the Villa mid-field. Might be our best ‘buy’ yet. We also seem to have a raft of younger players making themselves known and I was impressed with Revan when he came on.
All in all, a terrific performance and, for those who think that Lazio weren’t all that interested, they got so frustrated that they started kicking bits off us. Castellano tried it on with Mings but he might as well have tried head-butting a brick wall.
I know it’s only a friendly but, against a class European side, it couldn’t have gone any better.
It was a great result and performance by all last night, very entertaining. I also mentioned Revan during earlier pre-season which makes me think if we can get a good offer for Digne let him go. He would probably get a good transfer fee of £25m+, plus we get one of our biggest earners off the books and financially were then in a stronger position. I know Coutinho shows his class now and again but I don’t think he’s value for money imo based on his big wages and he’s 31 I think now, so not likely to get any better. I still feel if we can shift him on it would make sense particularly financially. Very excited for the new season now. I’d love for us to get off to a fast start for a change although 3 out of our first 4 games are away matches, typical!
Tielemans looks a class act and back to his best already. Coutinho will be very useful in Europe in my opinion, particularly against lesser European opposition; I’d keep him at this point. Likewise, Digne. I don’t like the idea of Torres playing LB when the league starts – I think he’ll get slaughtered, so if Moreno is injured and no one’s coming in, Digne must stay and must start, IMO. It’s great to see Revan Kellyman and Philogene-Bidace in the same frame on screen – suggests Unai is wise to the fact that quality kids can bolster his squad and offer him the element of surprise against wily opposition. All in all, looking good. I wonder if a monster forward signing will round of an excellent summer – Felix of Atletico being bandied about. Could be another Coutinho or the final piece in the jigsaw…
UTMV!
Felix of Atletico?
€ 280,385 per week?
Can’t see that happening.
Aaron Ramsey to Burnley for £12 mill?
I don’t know whether to be surprised by this or not.
Apparently we want a buyback clause, which is sensible, as he seems a decent player.
But is there any chance of him making the team in the next couple of seasons?
Maybe it’s about time we started pulling money in from our kids?
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/sport/football/transfer-news/aston-villa-close-12m-transfer-27463656
Just about to post on this Badger.
It makes quite a lot of sense as long as we can buy him back if he develops as expected / hoped.
Barca do it often as have Citeh.